By admin 
- Democrats have a tough road to take control of the Senate, but some recent wins and polling show things could be trending their way.
- Recent polling shows Democrats leading by double digits on the generic ballot and competitive in Ohio and Texas.
- Primary results have given Democrats their preferred candidates in Iowa, Montana and Texas, improving their prospects.
Democrats clearly have the momentum in the 2026 midterm elections. But in order to take control of the Senate, they need to do something pretty extraordinary: They likely must win at least two states that President Donald Trump carried by double-digits in 2024.
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The most likely possibilities would seem to be Alaska (Trump +13), Iowa (Trump +13), Ohio (Trump +11) and Texas (Trump +14). Each would require a significant swing. Some lower-tier targets could include Montana (Trump +20) and Nebraska (Trump +20), where Democrats appear to be pinning their hopes on independent candidates.
But recent developments give Democrats increasing reason to dare to dream:
- The primaries have broken the way Democrats wanted them to in states like Iowa, Texas and Montana.
- The “generic ballot” polling — a choice between an unnamed Democrat and an unnamed Republican — has trended significantly in their direction.
- The limited quality polling we have in key states — like a new — suggests winning some of these double-digit Trump states is within the realm of possibility.
That doesn’t mean everything is going Democrats’ way right now; the continued disclosures about Maine Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner, for instance, have cast real doubt on a blue state that Democrats probably need to win.
(They need four more seats to gain control, and their easiest targets are supposed to be Maine and North Carolina.)
But they’ve got some major signs trending their way.
The primaries
On Tuesday, the Democratic establishment got the candidate it wanted in Iowa: state Rep. Josh Turek, a Paralympian who has carried a district that voted for Trump. This led some election analysts to move the state into a more competitive category.
The same day, the party also pulled off a win, of sorts, in Montana. Specifically, it got an under-funded Democratic nominee who could theoretically open the door to an independent who has more of a chance of winning the race and depriving Republicans of a seat — or, at least, make the GOP spend more than it expected to in the state.
And further back, the matchup in Texas is exactly what the Democratic Party wanted. They got state Rep. James Talarico over firebrand Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary, then they got baggage-laden state Attorney General Ken Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff.
Some key primaries remain — especially the Democratic primary in Michigan — but, so far, they’re breaking well for Democrats.
The generic ballot
This is a mainstay of midterm election polling, which asks voters whether they would prefer to vote for an unnamed Republican candidate or an unnamed Democratic candidate in that district. It’s a way to get a read on the national environment without polling every individual race.
For a while, it looked like Democrats weren’t building the kind of advantage they would like to — possibly owing to their party’s poor brand.
But there are some signs it could be shifting.
While some polls continue to show this measure is close among registered voters — like a CNN poll (Democrats +3) a month ago and a Marquette Law School poll released this week (near even with Democrats at 46% to Republicans’ 45%) — some recent high-quality polls have found Democrats with a double-digit lead.
That includes a New York Times/Siena College poll and a Quinnipiac University poll which showed Democrats up 11, as well as an NPR/PBS/Marist College poll showing them up 10.
Those are the kinds of margins that give Democrats reason to hope they could win double-digit Trump states.
The state polls
While polling data is still early and sparse at the state level, the limited recent polls available look good for Democrats.
A new Fox News poll among Ohio registered voters is a case in point.
The poll released Wednesday shows Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown leading appointed GOP Sen. Jon Husted by eight points, 53%-45%. This is, again, in a state Trump won by 11 points in 2024. If that margin held among actual voters in November, it would be a 19-point swing.
The result would be similar to Brown’s six-point win in Trump’s first midterm in 2018 — an election that was quite good for Democrats.
And it suggests Brown is picking off significant numbers of crossover voters. The Fox poll shows he’s getting 13% of all Republicans, 14% of 2024 Trump voters and 31% of Republicans who don’t identify with the MAGA movement.
The polling in Texas has been similar, if more dated. A late April/early May showed Talarico and Paxton tied at 45%, while an older University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll showed Talarico ahead by eight, 42%-34%.
Both showed Talarico leading by more than 20 points with independents. And even the closer poll showed Paxton struggling to completely lock down Republican voters.
Another key facet of the polls in both states: They all show the Democratic Senate candidates doing better than other Democrats on the ballot, like gubernatorial candidates. That suggests Democrats are nominating pretty favorable candidate matchups.
And finally worth mentioning is another recent poll in Maine. The late-May University of New Hampshire survey was conducted before the recent revelations about Platner, but it confirmed Democrats’ overall momentum.
Platner led Republican five-term Sen. Susan Collins 51%-42% among likely voters.
What’s particularly encouraging for Democrats there was that Platner seemed to be locking down Democrats (taking 91% of them) more than Collins was locking down Republicans (80%).
That’s a reversal from Collins’ 2020 reelection race, when exit polls showed her getting 91% of Republicans but her Democratic opponent getting just 84% of Democrats.
Another Maine poll last month, from the University of Massachusetts Lowell and YouGov, showed Platner leading 48%-43%.
Polling Maine is notoriously difficult. In that 2020 race, Collins trailed in every public survey before shocking everyone when she won by nine points. And obviously, Platner’s baggage could impact things.
Still, the data right now is pretty clear that Democrats winning control of the Senate is increasingly on the table. One wouldn’t blame them for feeling optimistic about their ability to compete in Alaska and even Iowa, given what we’re seeing in Ohio and Texas.
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This story has been updated with additional polling.