Why Republicans think they can save their House majority at the US-Mexico border

Republicans are in an uphill battle to save their narrow House majority, weighed down by an unpopular president and concerns about the cost of living amid the US war with Iran.

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But they see glimmers of hope along the US-Mexico border.

The House Republicans’ campaign arm is working to flip three border districts in November while defending at least two more. They believe they have recruited a strong lineup of challengers and can lean on illegal border crossings hitting record lows under President Donald Trump, even as his administration’s deportation efforts have coincided with a sharp drop in Latino support.

In a midterm cycle with fewer likely competitive districts due to redistricting, what happens in as many as six competitive border districts could help determine who controls the House for Trump’s final two years in office. Texas Republicans redrew the state’s congressional map in part to target two longtime border Democrats, banking on GOP gains with Latino voters since Trump’s first run for office.

“Hispanics make up one of our most important voting blocs, and I think majority-Hispanic districts are some of our best pickup opportunities because we have made strong inroads with that community,” said Rep. Richard Hudson, the North Carolina Republican who chairs the National Republican Congressional Committee, in an interview with CNN.

Trump won 46% of Latino voters in 2024, according to CNNexit polling, up from 32% in 2020, a critical shift that helped him return to the White House. But Latinos nationally have soured on him since he returned to office. In an April survey from the Pew Research Center, Trump’s approval rating among Latino voters who supported him was down 27 percentage points from the start of his second term.

Republicans believe they can buck national headwinds at the border due to the strength of their recruited candidates, Trump’s inroads with Hispanic voters in the 2024 election, and voter concerns about returning to the border policies of former President Joe Biden’s administration.

Republicans’ ability to turn out Hispanic voters when Trump is not on the ballot is critical to the long-term health of the party. Hudson said it is a “challenge we’ve got to overcome” and that the NRCC’s “entire apparatus this time is built to solve that problem.”

“The GOP thinks that they can erase the damage they’ve caused just by propping up candidates with a Hispanic last name. They are dead wrong,” Bridget Gonzalez, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, responded in a statement, adding, “Latino voters are energized and showing up, and they will be the ones who deliver the House for Democrats.”

One of the Democratic incumbents the NRCC is targeting, Rep. Henry Cuellar of Texas, acknowledged in an interview that border districts can be unique from the national political environment. Cuellar was an early and sharp critic of Biden’s handling of the border as unauthorized crossings hit record highs.

But Cuellar argued Republicans continue to operate off the “false premise” that Trump’s past success with Hispanic voters translates to midterm victories, especially given widespread pessimism about high costs.

“They have not gone down, and now you have another issue with immigration,” Cuellar said. “It’s not open borders, but it’s the overreach of ICE. And I told some of my Republican friends, ‘If Trump would’ve just said … I closed the border. I’m deporting the worst of the worst,’ and stop there, I think people in South Texas would’ve said, ‘Yeah, that’s the way.’ But he didn’t stop there.”

Cuellar will face Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, the chief administrative official of the county that includes Laredo, the congressman’s longtime political base. Tijerina switched parties in late 2024, citing “the radicalization of the national Democrats.”

In a reflection of the leeway House Republicans are giving candidates on the economy, Tijerina praised Trump for launching strikes against Iran but acknowledged the war was “unpopular” and expressed confidence in the president’s ability to wrap it up soon.

“Sometimes we got to take a step back to take two steps forward,” Tijerina said, “and I think that’s what he’s trying to do, and I think that’s what people are seeing, and they understand that.”

How Republicans are approaching the border

Republicans are betting on candidates such as Eric Flores, a former federal prosecutor running against Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in Texas’ 34th Congressional District.

Hudson credited Trump with backing Flores early in his primary and helping him sail past former Rep. Mayra Flores, who is not related. National Republicans soured on Mayra Flores after she ran againstGonzalez in 2022 and 2024 and lost both times.

Eric Flores visits with supporters during a campaign stop in Corpus Christi, Texas, in February.

The NRCC doubled down on its commitment to the district earlier this month when it opened an office in Harlingen.

“This election is simple,” Eric Flores said at the office opening. “I proudly wear the Republican jersey, and he proudly claims to be ‘the right kind of Democrat’ — voting for the left woke agenda.”

Republicans are hoping to dent Gonzalez’s moderate profile with messaging about the border under Biden. One anti-Gonzalez ad cites a 2021 interview on CNN in which he was asked about then-Vice President Kamala Harris’ meetings in Central America to study the “root causes of migration” — work that caused critics to label her Biden’s “border czar.”

“I feel fully confident that the vice president is on the right track,” Gonzalez said then.

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Gonzalez has responded by taunting Flores as a “Trump lapdog” who will not stand up to the administration.

“My district is struggling under the weight of disastrous Republican policies coming out of Washington, which are denying families health care and driving up prices on everyday necessities like gas, food and housing,” Gonzalez said in a statement. “Eric Flores blindly rubber-stamps this Administration’s policies like a paid-for lapdog, all in exchange for a financed campaign to the detriment of South Texans’ quality of life.”

Democrats want to talk about Trump’s economy

Rep. Gabe Vasquez of New Mexico, who represents a district stretching from Albuquerque south to the border, won his last reelection by 4 points even as Trump carried his district by 2. At a recent event in Washington, Vasquez said the economy is the “unifying link” for voters who split their tickets.

“A lot of folks that thought President Trump was going to be this great businessman, that was going to improve the economy, that was going to change the status quo … are also those folks whose doors I knocked on,” Vasquez said at WelcomeFest, an annual gathering for centrist Democrats.

US Rep. Gabe Vasquez of New Mexico speaks in front of Las Cruces Boys and Girls Club on April 8.

Greg Cunningham, a former undercover cop who investigated crime along the border, is the GOP nominee against Vasquez. Cunningham said it was important for Republicans to level with voters about the state of the economy, but like Tijerina, he backed Trump’s war as worthwhile for national security.

“I actually applaud the president for doing the right thing instead of the politically expedient thing,” Cunningham said,adding that he believes the war will end soon and that oil prices will come down.

Hudson, the chair of the House GOP campaign arm, said Republicans should “acknowledge that folks are struggling out there” but also remind voters what the economy was like under Biden.

Hudson said candidates can say that “This election is a choice: Do you want to go back to the way it was three years ago, or do you want to let us continue to work to make your lives better?”

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is officially targeting two districts along the border — the seats held by Reps. Monica De La Cruz and Juan Ciscomani. But some Democrats also want to flip Texas’ 23rd Congressional District, which opened after Rep. Tony Gonzales announced he would not seek reelection after admitting he had an affair with a staffer who later died by suicide.

Republicans have nominated Brandon Herrera, a conservative activist and firearm reviewer on YouTube. The Democrats advanced attorney Katy Padilla Stout.

A top national Democratic recruit in Texas’ 15th District is Bobby Pulido, a Tejano music star running against De La Cruz.

Pulido speaks openly about being more culturally conservative than most Democrats. He talks about owning 11 AR-15s — his oldest son is named Remington after the Remington 700 bolt-action gun — and has chastised his party for prioritizing “social justice” issues over a more “aspirational” economic message.

Pulido said at WelcomeFest that South Texans “have become disillusioned with parties” and that he often hears from people that “‘I just want you to fight for me and for us. I don’t want your loyalty to be with your party. And will you break with your party if it means defending us?’”

Pulido has had to answer questions about his relationship with Frankie Caballero, a former bandmate previously convicted of a child sex crime. Pulido’s campaign has said he was not aware of Caballero’s status as a sex offender and that his managers fired Caballero when they learned in 2021.

Leading Democrats have continued to tout Pulido’s story. Rep. Suzan DelBene, the chairwoman of the DCCC, told CNN on Friday that Pulido was part of a crop of candidates who are “authentic, independent voices for their communities.”

Amid Pulido’s challenge, De La Cruz has sought some daylight with the Trump administration on immigration enforcement, floating new protections for migrant workers who have been targeted by deportation raids. And in March, she helped secure the release of Antonio Gámez-Cuéllar, a high school mariachi student who was detained by Immigration and Customs Enforcement along with his family after a regular check-in with immigration officials.

De La Cruz said in a statement that South Texans want immigration enforcement that goes after criminals, “not families working through the system the right way.”

“I’ve been very direct with leadership about that,” she said, “and I’m going to keep fighting for folks who follow the law and contribute to our community.”

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