Takeaways from the primary elections in California, Iowa and elsewhere

Six states ranging from California to New Jersey held primaries on Tuesday night.

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Many of the results from California will take a while to learn, given the state’s late poll-closing time and slow vote-counting. But here are some of our takeaways so far.

The Democratic establishment gets its guy in Iowa

Iowa state Rep. Josh Turek speaks during a primary election night watch party after winning the Democratic nomination for US Senate, on Tuesday, in Des Moines, Iowa.
Iowa state Rep. Josh Turek speaks during a primary election night watch party after winning the Democratic nomination for US Senate, on Tuesday, in Des Moines, Iowa.
Bryon Houlgrave/AP

The Iowa Senate race has not been considered a top-tier race. But the Democratic primary drew lots of attention.

The Democratic super PAC VoteVets spent about $10 million to help state Rep. Josh Turek. State Sen. Zach Wahls tried to fight back by making the race a referendum on Chuck Schumer, the oft-maligned Senate minority leader whom some Democrats are running against.

But however much Democratic base voters might not love Schumer, it didn’t work. If fact, Turek sailed to a painless victory, leading Wahls by 25 points with nearly all the vote reported.

Turek will advance to a general election matchup with GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson.

Hinson is the clear favorite in a state Trump won by 13 points in 2024. But Democrats hope Trump’s tariffs could make the farm-heavy state more competitive than usual. And Turek comes from a western Iowa state legislative district that backed Trump.

Some prognosticators on Tuesday night moved the race from a likely Republican win to merely leaning towards the GOP.

If Democrats can put it in play, that would be huge for their majority math, given they will need to flip multiple states that Trump won in 2024 by double digits.

A Trump endorsee goes down in the Iowa governor’s race

Republican gubernatorial candidate, US Rep. Randy Feenstra speaks to guests during a campaign event at the Silo City farm on May 30, near Sioux Rapids, Iowa.
Republican gubernatorial candidate, US Rep. Randy Feenstra speaks to guests during a campaign event at the Silo City farm on May 30, near Sioux Rapids, Iowa.
Scott Olson/Getty Images

For all the narrative about Trump demonstrating his power by knocking off incumbent Republicans in primaries in recent weeks, his endorsement record hasn’t been flawless, especially in lower-profile races.

Two candidates he backed last month are headed for runoffs in primaries for Georgia governor and US senator from Alabama, for instance.

And on Tuesday night, a Trump endorsee lost.

Trump on Friday decided to endorse Rep. Randy Feenstra in the Iowa governor’s race, hoping it would put Feenstra over the top in a crowded field. But Feenstra on Tuesday lost narrowly to businessman Zach Lahn.

Feenstra becomes the first statewide Trump endorsee to lose a primary in 2026. (A few also lost in 2022.)

Lahn, who was backed by Turning Point Action and controversial former Rep. Steve King, now faces highly touted Democratic state Auditor Rob Sand in a governor’s race that might be more promising for Democrats than the US Senate race.

Indeed, the two statewide Iowa primaries turned out just like Democrats would have hoped.

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The big-name California races could take some time

People watch results at an election night event for California gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra, on Tuesday in Los Angeles.
People watch results at an election night event for California gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra, on Tuesday in Los Angeles.
Jae C. Hong/AP

We don’t have hard-and-fast answers on the much-watched California governor’s race or Los Angeles mayor’s race. But we do have some clues who will move on in the top-two primaries.

In the first, Democratic former US Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra was in strong position to get one of the two slots, given how votes counted after Election Day in California are typically more Democratic. The other slot is likely to go either Republican former Fox News host Steve Hilton or Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer.

Becerra would be a favorite against Hilton in deep-blue California, while an all-Democrat race would likely be more competitive.

From left: Karen Bass, Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman.
From left: Karen Bass, Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman.
Getty Images/AP

In Los Angeles, Republican former realty TV star Spencer Pratt – who has earned a following among national Republicans – has a good shot to face off with Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, who advanced to the November election. But Pratt will have to hold off democratic socialist Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman as more votes roll in on Wednesday.

Even though Bass isn’t popular, Pratt would still face a steep uphill battle in dark-blue Los Angeles.

Another bit of good news for Democrats in Montana

Democrats’ Senate hopes also got a slight boost in Montana, another state Trump won by double digits in 2024.

That’s because a campaign to elevate little-known Democrat Alani Bankhead worked, with Bankhead winning the party’s nomination.

The hope among some appears to be that Bankhead, who has raised very little money, will either drop out or not run much of a campaign, allowing independent former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar to be the main opposition to Republican former US Attorney Kurt Alme.

(Letting independents lead the opposition is an increasingly popular Democratic strategy in deep-red states. And Bodnar has ties to former Democratic Sen. Jon Tester.)

Bankhead has denied she’ll bow to Bodnar, but her win makes this state more worth watching.

An incumbent governor is in danger of losing his party’s nomination

South Dakota Governor Larry Rhoden speaks with the press on April 8, at McCrossan Boys Ranch in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.
South Dakota Governor Larry Rhoden speaks with the press on April 8, at McCrossan Boys Ranch in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.
Samantha Laurey / Argus Leader/USA Today Network/Imagn Images

Former Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem’s tenure in Trump’s Cabinet didn’t exactly go as planned. And now it looks like the man who was elevated to replace her as South Dakota governor could be struggling to keep his job too.

Gov. Larry Rhoden trailed businessman Toby Doeden and was running just ahead of third-place Rep. Dusty Johnson in a crowded primary field late Tuesday night.

But the race likely won’t be over yet. That’s because South Dakota has a rarely invoked runoff law that means the top two face off head-to-head if nobody gets 35% of the vote.

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None of the candidates were getting even 30% late Tuesday night.

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