By admin 
- Six states hold primaries Tuesday, including races for California governor and Los Angeles mayor.
- Former reality TV star Spencer Pratt is hoping to advance in LA’s mayoral race against incumbent Karen Bass and progressive Nithya Raman.
- Democrats hope to expand their Senate map in Iowa and Montana despite challenging political terrain.
Six states will hold primaries on Tuesday: California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota.
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Here’s what we’re watching for when the results start rolling in Tuesday evening.
What happens in a wild California governor’s race?
It’s been one of the wildest races in recent memory. First, a procession of big-name Democrats like former Vice President Kamala Harris declined to run. Then, it looked like the state’s unusual top-two primary system could produce two Republicans in the general election. Then, front-running Democrat Eric Swalwell dropped out following allegations of sexual assault that he has denied, sharply recasting the race.
On Tuesday, we see what it all means. And it’s possible we could learn who’s likely to be California’s next governor.
The latest polls show three candidates atop the field: two Democrats — former US Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and businessman Tom Steyer — and Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host.
Becerra surged after Swalwell’s exit, seemingly in part because he was viewed as a steady pick with a solid political resume.
The top two finishers regardless of party will advance to November. Hilton has in recent days urged Republicans who support Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco to unite around his candidacy, arguing a two-Republican race is no longer possible.
That’s notable because Hilton would seem to have little chance of becoming governor but for a two-Republican race. He seems to be more focused on just making the general election, in other words.
If Hilton does make the general election, the Democrat he faces would be a heavy favorite. If it’s two Democrats, then it’s game on.
Can Spencer Pratt press on in the Los Angeles mayor’s race?
This might be, even more so than the governor’s race, the one where Republicans have dared to dream.
Former reality TV star Spencer Pratt, whose campaign has focused on dissatisfaction over Democratic Mayor Karen Bass’ response to devastating recent wildfires and the city’s homelessness crisis, is all the rage in national Republican circles and on conservative media.
The question now is whether he can make the general election against either Bass or Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman, a democratic socialist. The three of them are running close to one another, with a recent UC Berkeley-Los Angeles Times poll finding Bass at 26%, Raman at 25% and Pratt at 22%.
Of course, making the final two and becoming mayor are two very different things.
Pratt will hope for a matchup against the unpopular Bass. But this is still heavily blue Los Angeles, and the poll showed 57% of likely voters disliked Pratt — the same as Bass’ unfavorable rating.
In a hypothetical runoff, Pratt trailed Bass by 18 points and Raman by 17. With a number of respondents undecided, both Democrats were held below 50%, which is remarkable. But Pratt would still face an uphill battle.
Who do Democrats get in a pair of Senate races?
Given the tough Senate map they face, Democrats would badly like to expand it. And Tuesday’s primaries feature two states where that could at least plausibly be the case.
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The bigger one is Iowa, which will hold an open-seat race with GOP Sen. Joni Ernst retiring. Paralympian and state Rep. Josh Turek and populist state Sen. Zach Wahls are battling for the right to face GOP favorite Rep. Ashley Hinson.
Wahls has, notably, been campaigning hard against Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.
President Donald Trump carried Iowa by 13 points in 2024, but Democrats hold out hope that his tariffs might cost the GOP votes in a farming-heavy state that used to be more competitive.
Montana is more of a wild card. There, some prominent Democrats would seem to prefer to have a weaker nominee in order to rally support behind independent Seth Bodnar, the former president of the University of Montana.
Rallying behind independents has become an increasingly common strategy in states like Nebraska where Democrats stand little chance of winning, and Bodnar’s campaign has ties to Democratic former Sen. Jon Tester.
So some are trying to elevate little-known Democrat Alani Bankhead, while other Democrats, such as former Gov. Brian Schweitzer, are backing former state Rep. Riley Neill, a better-funded candidate.
Democrats were inflamed after GOP Sen. Steve Daines announced his retirement at the last minute in a gambit intended to foreclose a strong Democratic nominee and to anoint Republican Kurt Alme, a former US attorney, as his replacement.
Does Trump push his guy across the line in Iowa?
The governor’s race in Iowa might be even more interesting. That’s because Democrats have high hopes for State Auditor Rob Sand and think he could one day be a national contender — and also because governor’s races tend to be less partisan.
Perhaps recognizing that, Trump on Friday inserted himself into a crowded and contentious Republican primary, endorsing Rep. Randy Feenstra over businessman Zach Lahn and others.
That should make Feenstra the favorite. But a key factor to watch for is whether any of the five candidates gets 35% of the vote. If nobody does, the nominee would be chosen at a state party convention.
Who emerges in some key House primaries?
With so many states voting, it can be difficult to pick which House primaries matter most. But here are a few to keep an eye on:
- In California’s 22nd District, the question is which Democrat makes the general election against GOP Rep. David Valadao in a very competitive district — establishment favorite state Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains or political science professor Randy Villegas, a favorite of the Bernie Sanders/Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wing of the party.
- In California’s 40th District, Republican Reps. Young Kim and Ken Calvert are battling for the same House district after state Democrats redraw maps last year.
- In California’s 13th, does Democratic Rep. Adam Gray face Republican businessman Vin Kruttiventi or GOP former Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln in a Democratic-leaning district?
- In California’s Democratic-leaning 45th, who on a crowded GOP side faces Democratic Rep. Derek Tran?
- In California’s 11th District, we’ll start to learn who will succeed former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who recently backed Democratic San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan.
- In New Jersey’s 7th District, Democratic former Navy helicopter pilot Rebecca Bennett appears to be the favorite to face GOP Rep. Tom Kean, who has been missing from Congress for months with little explanation. But she faces some well-funded opponents. (Kean might have faced primary trouble, but he is running unopposed on the GOP side.)
Could an incumbent governor go down?
It’s quite possible in South Dakota.
Gov. Larry Rhoden got promoted from lieutenant governor last year when Kristi Noem left to become Trump’s homeland security secretary.
But he’s got a dogfight on his hands with other GOP candidates like Rep. Dusty Johnson, businessman Toby Doeden and state House Speaker Jon Hansen.
As in Iowa, the 35% threshold looms large. If none of the four candidates gets there, the top two would go to a runoff on July 28.
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