{"id":9453,"date":"2026-08-12T20:35:57","date_gmt":"2026-08-12T20:35:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/?p=9453"},"modified":"2026-08-12T20:35:57","modified_gmt":"2026-08-12T20:35:57","slug":"why-the-wisdom-of-crowds-is-getting-some-primaries-wrong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/?p=9453","title":{"rendered":"Why the \u2018wisdom of crowds\u2019 is getting some primaries wrong"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\nA version of this story appeared in CNN\u2019s What Matters newsletter. To get it in your inbox, sign up for free <\/em>here<\/em>.<\/em>\n<\/p>

Read more White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt leaving role, Trump announces<\/a><\/p>\n

\n Two successive weeks of primaries brought two successive shocks for progressive candidates in purple states and carry an important lesson for people watching politics:\n <\/p>\n

\n It\u2019s noisy out there!\n <\/p>\n

\n With little high-quality polling in either Michigan or Wisconsin, polling averages showing big leads for progressive candidates were driven largely by partisan polling. And prediction market bettors followed suit, going all-in for those candidates. The two combined to create the mirage of a sure thing ahead of primary day.\n <\/p>\n

\n But actual voters served up tight margins.\n <\/p>\n

\n Francesca Hong, the democratic socialist and state assembly member in the Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor, had a 95% chance of victory up until Tuesday, primary day, according to the prediction site Kalshi. (CNN has a partnership with Kalshi and uses its data to cover major events. But CNN editorial employees are not allowed to use prediction markets.) There are other prediction platforms, including Polymarket, that similarly favored Hong.\n <\/p>\n

\n Hong ended up losing the race by the tightest of margins to David Crowley, the establishment candidate and Milwaukee County executive who, incredibly,dropped out of the race before rejoining it. As of Wednesday morning, fewer than 5,000 votes separate the two. And neither reached 40% in the race. Two other prominent candidates \u2014 Mandela Barnes and Sara Rodriguez \u2014 dropped out ahead of Election Day, but not soon enough to remove their names from the ballot, and together won about 8% of the total votes cast.\n <\/p>\n

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\"Voters<\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n<\/div>\n
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\nVoters arrive at Charles Allis Art Museum to cast their ballots on primary Election Day in Milwaukee, on August 11, 2026. (<\/span>\n<\/div>\n
Kayla Wolf\/AP<\/figcaption>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\nEstablishment strikes back in Wisconsin and other takeaways from Tuesday\u2019s primaries<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

7 min read<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n

\n By around 9 p.m. ET, it was clear the vote was going to be close, and traders on Kalshi were predicting a Crowley victory. The odds see-sawed through the night. CNN did not project a Crowley victory until the 3 a.m. ET hour.\n <\/p>\n

\n In Michigan a week earlier, another proud progressive, Abdul El-Sayed, seemed like a lock with a lead in recent polls, none of which met CNN\u2019s standards for reporting, but which may have affected bettors on prediction sites. It all led up to a more than 97% chance of victory on primary eve, according to the market on Kalshi. His odds never dropped below 94% as votes were being counted.\n <\/p>\n

\n El-Sayed ended up winning, but with less than 49% of the vote, just one percentage point ahead of his moderate rival.\n <\/p>\n

\n In both cases, the near–<\/strong>certainty of bettors on Kalshi was likely fueledby polls that suggested leads for Hong and El-Sayed. But in both cases, the most recent polling had been conducted largely by partisan outfits. In the absence of more high-quality polling, vibes took over and fed the social media echo chamber and a sense of momentum for progressive candidates in particular.\n <\/p>\n

\n What happened in Wisconsin?\n<\/h2>\n

\n In Wisconsin, the most recent independent poll that met CNN\u2019s standards had been conducted in late July by Marquette University. In that poll, Hong was indeed ahead by double digits, holding 46% support among registered voters who said they would vote in the state\u2019s Democratic primary.\n <\/p>\n

\n Importantly, the race was still in flux. The Democratic establishment had not yet rung alarm bells about Hong and coalesced around Crowley.\n <\/p>\n

\n About a third of voters were uncertain about their choice when that Marquette poll was conducted. Barnes held second place in the poll, and dropped out just a day after the poll was released. It\u2019s also hard to accurately poll a race where the candidates keep changing.\n <\/p>\n

\n The ultimate winner, Crowley, had only recently reentered the race. And public scrutiny of some of Hong\u2019s more controversial previous positions was just getting underway.\n <\/p>\n

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\nDemocratic gubernatorial nominee David Crowley, center, and lieutenant governor nominee Sarah Godlewski, right, meet supporter Mike Balisle, left, following a breakfast with Democratic leaders in Middleton, Wisconsin, on Wednesday.<\/span>\n<\/div>\n
Kayla Wolf\/AP<\/figcaption>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n \u201cSometimes what polling tells you is that there\u2019s a lot of uncertainty and room for shifts in a race,\u201d said CNN\u2019s polling editor, Ariel Edwards-Levy.\n <\/p>

Read more NASA astronaut Mike Fincke leaves agency months after medical emergency in space<\/a><\/p>\n

\n In other words, the campaign was still very much underway when the last high quality polling was done.\n <\/p>\n

\n The fact that Hong had a 95% chance of winning on prediction markets never meant that she was going to get 95% of the vote or anywhere near it. It meant that most bettors thought she would win based on what they were seeing \u2014 polling, trends in other recent elections, their reads on the mojo of the candidates and whatever else fed the wisdom of the crowd.\n <\/p>\n

\n In addition to those limits, it might not help when Polymarket and Kalshi executives tout their products as \u201ctruth machines,\u201d when the reality is far more nuanced.\n <\/p>\n

\n The crowd was wrong\n<\/h2>\n

\n Kalshi\u2019s founders say favored candidates occasionally losing is actually a feature of the platform.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cBefore the \u2018prediction markets got it wrong\u2019 headlines roll in: a 5% probability doesn\u2019t mean it won\u2019t happen. It means it should happen 1 in 20 times. If 5% candidates never won, the markets would be broken,\u201d Kalshi co-founderTarek Mansour wrote on X.\n <\/p>\n

\n In fact, Kalshi argues this is a teachable moment.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cTeaching people to think probabilistically in a world that is quickly losing nuance is one of Kalshi\u2019s most important impacts,\u201d Kalshi spokesman Jack Such told CNN on Wednesday. Polymarket declined to comment.\n <\/p>\n

\n Polling quality matters\n<\/h2>\n

\n Michigan and Wisconsin are home to some of the highest-profile recent election polling misses, and pollsters agree they are notably places that are hard to poll well. Voters in both states have proved reliably swingy, and neither state has partisan voter registration, which makes difficult the type of modeling on voter file data that improves modern polling.\n <\/p>\n

\n It all means that the quantity of quality polling is important in knowing how confident to be about the state of any race, particularly as fewer news organizations conduct polls. CNN does not rely on any single poll, but does compute a poll of polls \u2014 essentially an average of polls that meet its standards \u2014 where possible to assess presidential approval ratings and, as elections approach, for major contests.\n <\/p>\n

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\"Residents<\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n<\/div>\n
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\nResidents vote in Wisconsin’s primary election, in Madison, Wisconsin, on Tuesday.<\/span>\n<\/div>\n
Scott Olson\/Getty Images<\/figcaption>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n Looking ahead to November, polling should be viewed for what it does say rather than what it does not. A recent CNN Poll conducted by SSRS showed that voters preferred Democrats by an 8-point margin heading into the November midterm election. That number is only so helpful, however, since people aren\u2019t voting generally for Republicans or Democrats; they\u2019re voting in a specific race for a specific candidate. House seats in many states have also been gerrymandered to benefit one party or the other, stuffing like-minded voters into certain districts.\n <\/p>\n

\n What we\u2019ve learned over the past two weeks is that November is still an eternity away and momentum can shift.\n <\/p>\n

\n There are going to be a lot of polls out there that may point in different directions, a lot of them conducted by groups with a partisan agenda.\n <\/p>\n

\n On the Kalshi prediction market, the odds of Democrats taking control of the House has been growing all summer and currently sits at more than 85%, which is a high degree of confidence, but also leaves a lot of room for Republicans. They actually have a better chance of holding the House majority than Crowley had of winning the Democratic primary for governor in Wisconsin, under Kalshi\u2019s odds. It\u2019s important to remember what these numbers mean: People who are placing monetary bets think the safer bet is on Democrats winning. In the Senate, the odds of one party or the other winning control are about even.\n <\/p>\n

\n Those markets are an interesting tool, but they\u2019re only as good as the conventional wisdom.\n <\/p>

Read more New details on Trump\u2019s secret plane swap expose the administration\u2019s lies<\/a><\/p>\n

\n CNN\u2019s Marshall Cohen contributed to this report\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Two successive weeks of primaries brought two successive shocks for progressive candidates in purple states and carry an important lesson for people watching politics:<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9446,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9453","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics"],"yoast_head":"\nWhy the \u2018wisdom of crowds\u2019 is getting some primaries wrong - Relocation Times<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/?p=9453\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why the \u2018wisdom of crowds\u2019 is getting some primaries wrong - 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