{"id":9311,"date":"2026-08-12T07:34:31","date_gmt":"2026-08-12T07:34:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/?p=9311"},"modified":"2026-08-12T07:34:31","modified_gmt":"2026-08-12T07:34:31","slug":"trump-has-a-carter-style-iran-problem-as-the-economy-drags-before-the-midterms","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/?p=9311","title":{"rendered":"Trump has a Carter-style Iran problem as the economy drags before the midterms"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\n President Donald Trump is staring down two stark liabilities that threaten to damage his Republican Party in the midterms and to ruin his second term-legacy.\n <\/p>

Read more Fishermen find ancient Roman shipwreck off coast of Sicily<\/a><\/p>\n

\n Somehow he\u2019s maneuvered himself into a more vulnerable spot regarding Iran than any president since Jimmy Carter. As in the 1979-80 hostage crisis, the Islamic Republic is exerting political pressure that it can dial up on the US leader ahead of a national election. A week ago, Trump\u2019s team predicted a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was imminent. But Tehran, now dictating terms to the US global superpower, has imposed tough new conditions.\n <\/p>\n

\n At the same time, Trump faces a separate but related problem at home. The war\u2019s impact on energy prices is further souring voter perceptions of the economy. He\u2019s entered the doom loop in which presidents and officials scan data for silver linings but voters see only indifference to their plights. Twists like Friday\u2019s bad jobs report are untimely for the GOP with November fast approaching.\n <\/p>\n

\n As the political environment darkens for Republicans, their leader seems oblivious. Many of Trump\u2019s weekend social media posts might have been scripted by his foes to portray an out-of-touch president. He posted a picture with South African golf legend Gary Player, and another of the sculpting of a new green at one of his courses. He posted about a futuristic drone port on the proposed White House ballroom, the Reflecting Pool renovation, and two statues in Washington newly coated with glistening golden paint. He also claimed to be a slayer of inflation, but he looked more like a president desperately trying to leave a physical legacy rather than one brimming with ideas for national renewal.\n <\/p>\n

\n The weekend did deliver a victory for Trump: The Senate narrowly confirmed his former personal lawyer Todd Blanche as US attorney general. But this is a win that will appeal more to the president than to voters. And Republicans left town after proving their own warnings that Trump\u2019s top-priority voting restrictions bill can\u2019t pass. And the president\u2019s grim August took another rough turn abroad, when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected another supposed triumph \u2014 a plan to disarm Hamas in Gaza.\n <\/p>\n

\n Are Democrats handing Trump a lifeline?\n<\/h2>\n

\n Such political challenges would typically spell trouble for incumbent presidents in midterm elections. And as CNN\u2019s Aaron Blake pointed out Sunday, multiple polls now show that Trump has squandered the traditional GOP advantage in two areas: national security and the economy.\n <\/p>\n

\n Trump\u2019s thwarting of convention has always been a political strength, and he\u2019s less than two years past the greatest political comeback in US history. But the dynamics of November\u2019s election may not favor him. He\u2019s always been more effective politically as an outsider, as in 2016 and 2024. He is the political establishment now, and previously when he\u2019s been forced to defend his own record, as in the 2018 and 2020 elections, he has foundered.\n <\/p>\n

\n The president is also in denial about how voters are feeling. \u201cThey are not angry at me, but they\u2019re angry at Republicans,\u201d Trump told Punchbowl News last week.\n <\/p>\n

\n But in recent weeks, Democrats may have given him an opening. Primary wins by progressive and democratic socialists are fueling Trump\u2019s claims that he is resisting a tide of left-wing extremism. In a parallel to the GOP\u2019s tea party insurgency earlier in the century, Democrats may risk winnable seats by nominating candidates who alienate more moderate, suburban voters who tend to decide elections.\n <\/p>\n

\n Progressives, however, believe that the jumbled political circumstances create the conditions for a breakthrough among voters who aren\u2019t just down on Trump but who also disdain the moderate Democratic establishment \u2014 especially after the failed campaigns of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris allowed Trump to regain the White House.\n <\/p>\n

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\nDemocratic candidate for US Senate Abdul El-Sayed, center, at a rally alongside Michigan state Rep. Donavan McKinney, US Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, US Sen. Bernie Sanders, United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain and US Rep. Rashida Tlaib in Detroit on July 18.<\/span>\n<\/div>\n
Sarah Rice\/Getty Images<\/figcaption>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n Progressive Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed on Sunday homed in on Trump\u2019s vulnerability on the economy as he pivoted from a bitter primary in a state that could decide who runs the Senate. \u201cDifferences that we hashed out are so much smaller than the similarities that we share: a responsibility to stand up to Donald Trump and the ways that he\u2019s used his power for his own gain, for his family\u2019s finances, rather than to improve your family\u2019s finances,\u201d El-Sayed told CNN\u2019s Jake Tapper on \u201cState of the Union.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n Iran digs in to defy Trump\n<\/h2>\n

\n In 1980, Iran exerted leverage over a US election after holding 52 Americans in Tehran in a standoff that eventually lasted 444 days. Forty-six years later, it\u2019s not people being held hostage \u2014 but the Strait of Hormuz oil exporting route. This means the regime has another election-season pressure point as US voters \u2014 as they did with Carter \u2014 turn on a president over the economy.\n <\/p>\n

\n Ironically, Trump has seemed very aware of the way that Iran was able to create political heat on Carter. Many historians believe the hostage crisis was instrumental in the Democratic president\u2019s loss to Republican Ronald Reagan in the 1980 election after one term.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cI didn\u2019t want to be Jimmy Carter, you know, I didn\u2019t feel like being Jimmy Carter,\u201d Trump said on June 4, in explaining why he did not order a special forces operation to seize Iranian nuclear material from its underground sites.\n <\/p>

Read more All-powerful Trump tells America, \u2018Nothing bad can happen\u2019<\/a><\/p>\n

\n Trump was referring to the disastrous Operation Eagle Claw, a 1980 attempt to free the hostages. The mission was aborted because of bad weather and ended when a helicopter crashed into a C-130 aircraft in the Iranian desert, killing all eight servicemen on board. The hostages remained in Iranian hands until 20 minutes after Ronald Reagan was sworn in as president in January 1981.\n <\/p>\n

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\"President<\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n<\/div>\n
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\nPresident Jimmy Carter prepares to make a national television address form the White House on the failed mission to rescue the Iran hostages on April 25, 1980.<\/span>\n<\/div>\n
AP\/File<\/figcaption>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n The US economy has shown to be more resilient than it was in 1980. But the war is having an effect.\n <\/p>\n

\n Average national gasoline prices are back above $4 a gallon, according to AAA. Voters are angry about high prices and are struggling against longer-term affordability trends in housing and healthcare. And oil prices ticked up 0.4% on Monday to $78.49 a barrel as hopes of an imminent deal to open the strait faded.\n <\/p>\n

\n Trump officials have repeatedly stressed that the burden will quickly ease once the strait opens. But, paradoxically, their comments may only bolster Iran\u2019s negotiating position. Tehran has toughened its demands, including the ending of a US maritime blockade and the departure of American forces from the region; it also wants US compensation for the war and a lifting of sanctions.\n <\/p>\n

\n This not a deal Trump can accept, so Iran may be overplaying its hand. But if Trump loses patience and relaunches the war, he\u2019ll be doubling down on a deeply unpopular conflict and inviting a worse economic backlash.\n <\/p>\n

\n The president is trying to recapture the initiative. He told Axios he\u2019s now waiting for the economic impact of the US blockade to kick in. \u201cWe are low-keying it,\u201d Trump said Sunday. \u201cWe are only semi-negotiating with them.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n In effect, therefore, Trump \u2014 after devastating Iran\u2019s military, setting back its nuclear program in last year\u2019s air strikes and hammering its defense industrial base \u2014 is betting on the US economy\u2019s greater endurance to get him out of his strategic dead end.\n <\/p>\n

\n Many analysts believe Iran is more willing to impose suffering on its people as its radical leaders pursue their existential struggle with the US. Maybe the regime will collapse. But it seems unlikely on Trump\u2019s short political timeline.\n <\/p>\n

\n White House insists the \u2018economy is booming\u2019\n<\/h2>\n

\n Republicans can\u2019t wait for domestic relief from the war. Official data Friday showing the economy lost 23,000 jobs in July was a fresh blow to the White House and Republican reelection campaigns \u2014 and to all the Americans out of work. But the administration is not wrong to argue the economy is fundamentally resilient \u2014 even as high food and housing prices, and wages that don\u2019t seem to keep up, mean most people don\u2019t recognize Trump\u2019s economic \u201cgolden age.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

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\"National<\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n<\/div>\n
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\nNational Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett participates in a television interview outside the White House on February 25.<\/span>\n<\/div>\n
Kevin Dietsch\/Getty Images<\/figcaption>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n This gap between a White House\u2019s perception of the economy and the experience of regular Americans is a perennial political trap that is often triggered by discordant rhetoric.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cThe bottom line is that, if you look at the overall economy, then things are really, really booming,\u201d Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, told CNN\u2019s Tapper. Hassett argued that job losses last month reflected the end of temporary work from the World Cup finals and teachers taking July off. He insisted the economy was creating high-quality jobs and that prices were moderating.\n <\/p>\n

\n But calibrating an economic message is among the trickiest tasks in politics. It defeated the Republican presidential campaign of John McCain in 2008; Democrats\u2019 midterm campaigns under President Barack Obama in 2010; and the failed campaigns of Biden and Harris in 2024.\n <\/p>\n

\n And the economy is just one of Trump\u2019s problems.\n <\/p>\n

\n He told Axios that that the war \u201cwill work out. It always works out. It\u2019s like a chess game.\u201d But on Iran and across the broader political spectrum, his endgame is impenetrable.\n <\/p>

Read more Sky-gazers can look forward to a stunning meteor shower peak this week. How and when to see it<\/a><\/p>\n

\nThis article has been updated with new details.<\/em>\n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Donald Trump is staring down two stark liabilities that threaten to damage his Republican Party in the midterms and ruin his second term-legacy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9306,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9311","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics"],"yoast_head":"\nTrump has a Carter-style Iran problem as the economy drags before the midterms - Relocation Times<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/?p=9311\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trump has a Carter-style Iran problem as the economy drags before the midterms - 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