{"id":8296,"date":"2026-08-03T08:05:23","date_gmt":"2026-08-03T08:05:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/?p=8296"},"modified":"2026-08-03T08:05:23","modified_gmt":"2026-08-03T08:05:23","slug":"senate-democrats-are-putting-red-states-in-play-that-might-not-be-good-enough-anymore","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/?p=8296","title":{"rendered":"Senate Democrats are putting red states in play. That might not be good enough anymore"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\n The big hurdle for Democrats\u2019 Senate majority hopes at the start of the 2026 election cycle seemed clear: The map was terrible for them.\n <\/p>

Read more Blanche rescinds Trump\u2019s \u2018anti-weaponization\u2019 fund, removing hurdle from attorney general nominee\u2019s confirmation<\/a><\/p>\n

\n They needed to win at least two states that President Donald Trump carried by double digits in 2024. It wasn\u2019t even clear they could put that many red states in play.\n <\/p>\n

\n Now, polls increasingly suggest they have put more than enough of those states in play. But other hurdles that complicate their majority math have cropped up \u2014 creating an incredibly complex and high-stakes battle to control the Senate come 2027.\n <\/p>\n

\n The good news for Democrats: Recent, early high-quality polling suggests red states are competitive. The bad news for the party: That might not be sufficient.\n <\/p>\n

\n States in play\n<\/h2>\n

\n In Texas, a Friday showed Democratic state Rep. James Talarico at 51% among registered voters to state Attorney General Ken Paxton\u2019s 48%. It\u2019s merely the latest to show the race close to even.\n <\/p>\n

\n In Iowa, state Rep. Josh Turek among registered voters in a Fox poll in late June. And he was neck and neck with GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson \u2014 46% to 48% among likely voters \u2014 in a New York Times-Siena poll, also in late June.\n <\/p>\n

\n In Ohio, former Sen. Sherrod Brown among registered voters in a Fox poll from early June. And he was running close with GOP Sen. Jon Husted \u2014 47% to 50% among likely voters \u2014 in a Times-Siena poll from later that month.\n <\/p>\n

\n And in Alaska, a Times-Siena poll showed Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola within 2 points of GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan.\n <\/p>\n

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\"State<\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n<\/div>\n
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\nState Representative James Talarico, a Democrat from Texas and US Senate candidate, is hugged by a supporter during a Juneteenth march in Fort Worth, Texas, on Friday, June 19, 2026. Talarico will face Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton in November’s general election.<\/span>\n<\/div>\n
Mark Felix\/Bloomberg\/Getty Images<\/figcaption>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\"Mary<\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n<\/div>\n
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\nMary Peltola launches her campaign as a Democratic candidate for Senate in Anchorage, Alaska, on January 17, 2026. Peltola will face Republican Senate candidate Dan Sullivan.<\/span>\n<\/div>\n
Kerry Tasker\/Reuters<\/figcaption>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n Polling at this stage can\u2019t be interpreted to predict results, of course, but it suggests that these candidates are doing what they need to do to make those states competitive.\n <\/p>\n

\n Specifically, the Fox polls show the three Democrats they tested carrying independents by wide margins \u2014 including by more than a 2-1 ratio in Talarico\u2019s and Turek\u2019s cases. And both Talarico and Turek were both also carrying at least 23% of non-MAGA Republicans. (The Ohio poll didn\u2019t break out this group.)\n <\/p>\n

\n Peltola also led 51%-37% among independents and took 8% of Republicans in the Times-Siena poll.\n <\/p>\n

\n Whether Democrats can actually get over the hump in a state like Texas \u2014 where they\u2019ve come close before, but haven\u2019t won a statewide race in more than 30 years \u2014 is a big question. But they\u2019ve pretty evidently given themselves a chance to pick off two of those states.\n <\/p>

Read more As he wrestles with the monumental and the absurd, Trump forgets what voters want<\/a><\/p>\n

\n Why it might not be enough\n<\/h2>\n

\n Democrats are suddenly dealing with complications in some friendlier states \u2014 namely, Maine and Michigan \u2014 and the new x-factor known as Sen. John Fetterman.\n <\/p>\n

\n In Maine, Democrats were able to rid themselves of their Graham Platner problem. But it\u2019s not yet clear how much better his replacement, former state Senate President Troy Jackson, will ultimately fare under the new spotlight.\n <\/p>\n

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\"Troy<\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n<\/div>\n
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\nTroy Jackson speaks on July 25, 2026, in Bangor, Maine.<\/span>\n<\/div>\n
Joe Raedle\/Getty Images<\/figcaption>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n A University of New Hampshire poll in mid-July put Jackson at 49% to GOP Sen. Susan Collins\u2019 46% among likely general election voters. But the same pollster once had Platner (prior to his bigger controversies) leading by between 9 and 11 points.\n <\/p>\n

\n Michigan is Democrats\u2019 more immediate concern, where they\u2019re playing defense to hold onto a seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Gary Peters. There are major concerns among some establishment Democrats that Sen. Bernie Sanders-backed Abdul El-Sayed, who\u2019s facing Rep. Haley Stevens in Tuesday\u2019s Democratic primary, might jeopardize a purple state that Democrats would reasonably expect to win in a favorable year for their party.\n <\/p>\n

\n (A case in point: Recent polls show Democratic candidates comfortably ahead \u2014 by around 10 points \u2014 in similarly situated swing states like Georgia and North Carolina.)\n <\/p>\n

\n But perhaps the most unwelcome variable in this majority math might be Fetterman. The Pennsylvania senator, who has demonstrated a penchant for siding with Republicans and giving his party fits in recent months, has also increasingly flirted with switching parties.\n <\/p>\n

\n Back in May, Fetterman wrote that he had \u201cno plans to leave\u201d the Democratic Party. But a couple weeks ago, he amended that posture by saying he would leave it if it adopts an anti-Israel posture \u2014 a topic causing significant strife within the party.\n <\/p>\n

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\"US<\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n<\/div>\n
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\nUS Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed holds a campaign rally in Detroit, Michigan, on July, 18, 2026.<\/span>\n<\/div>\n
Rebecca Cook\/Reuters<\/figcaption>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\"US<\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n<\/div>\n
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\nUS Sen. John Fetterman rides in an elevator outside the Senate Chambers during a vote in the U.S. Capitol Building on May 11, 2026 in Washington, DC.<\/span>\n<\/div>\n
Anna Moneymaker\/Getty Images<\/figcaption>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n Democrats have been trending more against Israel, reflecting the views of their base, though it isn\u2019t an \u201cofficial\u201d position, as Fetterman laid out. Still, given huge pressure from that base, the real question is how stringent a litmus test this is for the Pennsylvania senator.\n <\/p>\n

\n That means Democrats could go into the November general election not even knowing how many seats they need to win. Do they need to flip four seats, including two red ones that Trump carried by significant margins, as they\u2019d previously thought? Or do they need to actually win five and three, respectively?\n <\/p>\n

\n Democrats clearly have the fundamentals on their side, and it\u2019s looking like the environment is conducive to them winning where they need to. Just like in the red states, polls show their candidates in Georgia and North Carolina have big leads among independents and are taking significant numbers of non-MAGA Republicans.\n <\/p>\n

\n But it\u2019s also looking like it might not be red states that ultimately decide the fate of the Senate.\n <\/p>

Read more Blanche rescinds Trump\u2019s \u2018anti-weaponization\u2019 fund, removing hurdle from AG pick\u2019s confirmation<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The big hurdle for Democrats\u2019 Senate majority hopes at the start of the 2026 election cycle seemed clear: The map was terrible for them.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8285,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8296","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics"],"yoast_head":"\nSenate Democrats are putting red states in play. That might not be good enough anymore - Relocation Times<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/?p=8296\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Senate Democrats are putting red states in play. 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