{"id":5885,"date":"2026-07-14T23:06:03","date_gmt":"2026-07-14T23:06:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/?p=5885"},"modified":"2026-07-14T23:06:03","modified_gmt":"2026-07-14T23:06:03","slug":"the-trump-teams-worst-predictions-about-the-iran-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/?p=5885","title":{"rendered":"The Trump team\u2019s worst predictions about the Iran war"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<div>\n<p>\n            One of the most infamous comments uttered about the Iraq War was then-Vice President Dick Cheney\u2019s prediction, just days before it began, that US troops would be \u201cgreeted as liberators.\u201d\n    <\/p><p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/?p=5881\">Dozens of New York cooling towers test positive for Legionnaires\u2019 bacteria as outbreak reaches 60 cases<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\n            Over the years, that comment came to epitomize not just the George W. Bush administration\u2019s broken promises, but also its apparent failures to prepare for and understand the war it launched. How could it be so brazen as to directly predict something that turned out to be so wrong?\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            The Trump administration\u2019s track record on the Iran war is rife with similar examples.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            Over the last four and a half months, President Donald Trump and those around him have confidently made predictions that quickly fell apart.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            It often seems as if Trump, especially, has little to no understanding of what\u2019s happening with the war he launched. But the wayward comments are hardly limited to him.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            Here are some of the biggest examples.\n    <\/p>\n<h2>\n        The claim: The US would control the Strait of Hormuz\n<\/h2>\n<p>\n            Trump shocked the world on Monday by confidently announcing the United States would soon take over the Strait of Hormuz as its \u201cguardian\u201d and charge countries 20% cargo fees for passage.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            Except this ran counter to what the administration previously said about anyone charging tolls in the strait.\n    <\/p>\n<div>\n<header>\n<span>\n      Related article\n    <\/span>\n<\/header>\n<section>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Vessels are anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026.\" class=\"wp-image-5884\" height=\"144\" src=\"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/ee7ebe07f6382e35a85767bfef640a10.jpg\" width=\"256\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<span>Vessels are anchored in the Strait of Hormuz as seen from Musandam, Oman, June 3, 2026.<\/span>\n<\/div>\n<figcaption>Stringer\/Reuters\/File<\/figcaption>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>\n<span>Inside the 24-hour sprint to convince Trump to drop his plans to toll Strait of Hormuz<\/span>\n<\/p>\n<div>5  min read<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<p>\n            \u201cWe\u2019ve always said a tolling system in the strait would be unacceptable.\u202fBut we don\u2019t just say that; the world has said that,\u201d Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in May. He also said it would be \u201ccompletely illegal, by the way.\u201d\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            Trump\u2019s Monday comments also raised the prospect of the United States needing a sustained military presence to control the strait for years to come.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            In other words: It seemed wholly impractical. And sure enough, just a day later, Trump reversed himself.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            That the president would even float something so extreme and difficult suggests he\u2019s not terribly clued in on what\u2019s feasible. CNN reported Tuesday that advisers scrambled to talk him out of the idea.\n    <\/p>\n<h2>\n        The claim: The war will be short\n<\/h2>\n<p>\n            Trump predicted early on that the war would be brief, repeatedly projecting it would last \u201cfour to five weeks.\u201d\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            More than two months in, on May 1, he said that it \u201cshouldn\u2019t be too long.\u201d\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            It\u2019s now been four and a half months \u2014 with no end in sight.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            Many of the early predictions weren\u2019t hard and fast, and the administration argues the war wasn\u2019t ongoing during the ceasefire, which Trump has since declared over. But officials\u2019 early projections suggested the administration anticipated a much different type of war.\n    <\/p>\n<h2>\n        The claim: Iran\u2019s leaders are suddenly rational\n<\/h2>\n<p>\n            After the US and Iran agreed on a memorandum of understanding last month, Trump and Vice President JD Vance spoke as if Iran\u2019s leaders had suddenly seen the light.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            \u201cWe\u2019re dealing with people that I think are very rational people,\u201d Trump said on June 16, adding that Iran\u2019s leaders were \u201cnice to deal with\u201d and \u201cnot radicalized.\u201d\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            Vance said in an interview with CNN\u2019s Jake Tapper: \u201cThe coolest thing about the progress we\u2019ve made over the last few weeks is that you see people within the Iranian system, senior leadership, even IRGC officials say, \u2018You know what, we may have some animosity, we may have some mistrust, but we recognize the way that we\u2019ve done business with the United States for 47 years is a mistake.\u2019\u201d\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            It didn\u2019t take long for the administration to eat those words. After the ceasefire and the memorandum crumbled last week, Trump called Iran\u2019s leaders \u201ccuckoo,\u201d \u201cevil,\u201d \u201csick,\u201d \u201cdirty players\u201d and \u201cscum.\u201d\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            It\u2019s not clear whether Trump and Vance believed what they were saying earlier or whether they were just saying nice things.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            But either way, their comments quickly came to look pollyannaish \u2014 as many predicted at the time.\n    <\/p>\n<h2>\n        The claim: Iran\u2019s people could rise up\n<\/h2>\n<p>\n            When he first launched strikes on Iran in late February, Trump was focused on the idea that the Iranian people could rise up and change their regime.\n    <\/p><p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/?p=5875\">Trump administration ends attempt to freeze $10B in federal funds for blue states<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\n            He even concluded his announcement that night by focusing on the idea.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            \u201cI call upon all Iranian patriots who yearn for freedom to seize this moment \u2014 to be brave, be bold, be heroic, and take back your country,\u201d Trump said. \u201cAmerica is with you. I made a promise to you, and I fulfilled that promise. The rest will be up to you, but we\u2019ll be there to help.\u201d\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            But when the popular uprising didn\u2019t happen, Trump quickly dropped the subject \u2014 as if it was never his goal to begin with. And today, he\u2019s talking as though it were unthinkable.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            \u201cUnless they could be completely armed, I never thought they\u2019d have that kind of an uprising, because these people are violent,\u201d Trump told radio host Hugh Hewitt on Monday. \u201cTheir so-called leadership is very violent.\u201d\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            But Trump clearly thought it was a possibility at one point. In fact, it was a major point of emphasis.\n    <\/p>\n<h2>\n        The claim: The Strait of Hormuz wasn\u2019t a problem\n<\/h2>\n<p>\n            When Iran made its big move to gain leverage by shutting the Strait of Hormuz, the administration initially shrugged it off and suggested it couldn\u2019t possibly last.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            \u201cIt\u2019s something we\u2019re dealing with; we have been dealing with it,\u201d Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on March 13. He added that people \u201cdon\u2019t need to worry about it.\u201d\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            A few days earlier, on March 9, Trump said the strait \u201cdoesn\u2019t really affect us\u201d because \u201cwe have so much oil.\u201d\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            \u201cThe Strait of Hormuz is going to remain safe,\u201d Trump added.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            The strait has not remained \u2014 or been consistently \u2014 safe. And while it\u2019s true that other countries have been more impacted by Iran shutting it down, the closure has also wrought significant damage on the US economy.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            It\u2019s also giving Iran major leverage over Trump.\n    <\/p>\n<h2>\n        The claim: Gas prices will quickly fall below $3 per gallon\n<\/h2>\n<p>\n            Related to its naivet\u00e9 about the strait, the administration has made many wayward assurances about gas prices.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            In an interview with Tapper on March 8, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said gas prices would be back under $3 per gallon \u201cbefore too long.\u201d\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            Pressed on precisely when, Wright said that, even in the \u201cworst case,\u201d it would be \u201cweeks\u201d rather than \u201cmonths.\u201d\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            It\u2019s been even worse than Wright\u2019s worst-case scenario. More than four months later, gas still isn\u2019t under $3 per gallon. Prices haven\u2019t fallen below $3.70 in the national average, according to Gas Buddy, and they\u2019re now spiking again after renewed hostilities.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            The bad prediction underlines how the administration didn\u2019t seem to fully anticipate just how much damage Iran could do by closing the Strait of Hormuz.\n    <\/p>\n<h2>\n        The claim: Iran is dying to make a deal\n<\/h2>\n<p>\n            Trump has said dozens of times that Tehran was \u201cbegging\u201d for a deal, it was \u201cdesperate\u201d and \u201cdying\u201d to make one, and that it wanted a deal \u201cso badly\u201d and \u201cvery badly.\u201d\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            He also routinely predicted a deal was just around the corner.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            But the events of the past three months have shown the opposite. Iran has not only held out for very significant concessions, it\u2019s also scuttled what seemed to be pretty favorable terms in last month\u2019s memorandum of understanding.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            Perhaps it\u2019s some wishful thinking or spin from Trump, but it suggests he doesn\u2019t understand the motivations of his adversary.\n    <\/p>\n<h2>\n        The claim: The US had free rein over Iran\u2019s skies\n<\/h2>\n<p>\n            From the war\u2019s earliest days, Trump and Hegseth claimed Iran\u2019s military defeat was so absolute that the United States could basically fly anywhere it wanted to without risk.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            At a March 4 briefing, Hegseth claimed the US and Israel \u201cwill have complete control of Iranian skies\u201d within a week.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            \u201cAnd Iran will be able to do nothing about it,\u201d Hegseth said.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            Trump repeated in the weeks that followed that Iran \u201ccan\u2019t do a thing about it.\u201d\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            \u201cThey have no anti-aircraft equipment. Their radar is 100% annihilated,\u201d Trump said. \u201cWe are unstoppable as a military force.\u201d\n    <\/p><p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/?p=5873\">House passes bill to make Daylight Saving Time permanent<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\n            But by early April, Iran managed to take down two US aircraft.\n    <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Over the last four and a half months, President Donald Trump and those around him have confidently made predictions that quickly fell apart.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5882,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5885","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Trump team\u2019s worst predictions about the Iran war - 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