{"id":5736,"date":"2026-07-14T15:07:59","date_gmt":"2026-07-14T15:07:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/?p=5736"},"modified":"2026-07-14T15:07:59","modified_gmt":"2026-07-14T15:07:59","slug":"operation-boomerang-a-return-to-military-strikes-reveals-no-good-options-for-iran-or-the-us","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/?p=5736","title":{"rendered":"Operation Boomerang: A return to military strikes reveals no good options \u2014 for Iran or the US"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\nBrett McGurk is a CNN global affairs analyst who served in senior national security positions under Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden.<\/em>\n<\/p>

Read more Justices Kagan and Barrett demand more Supreme Court security funding in rare appearance before Congress<\/a><\/p>\n

\n When the US and Israeli military operation against Iran began in February, I cited a principle classical military theory. If a leader \u2014 in this case, President Donald Trump \u2014 is not clear in his own mind regarding the objectives to be achieved before launching a military operation, the objectives will be defined for him and not in ways he may have anticipated.\n <\/p>\n

\n That\u2019s from Carl von Clausewitz, the 19th century theorist who may well be rolling over in his grave given the events unfolding in the Middle East.\n <\/p>\n

\n Neither Israel nor the US defined with specificity the objectives to be achieved when the attack on Iran launched nearly five months ago. Trump spoke of regime change, as well as degrading Iran\u2019s military capabilities and removing its remaining nuclear material left over from airstrikes he had ordered last summer. Iran responded by attacking countries across the Middle East \u2014 and commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the channel accounting for 20% of global energy trade.\n <\/p>\n

\n Today, the main objective for the US is to open the strait, an objective that \u2014 as Clausewitz might have warned \u2014 was not even on the table when the war began.\n <\/p>\n

\n Back to the future\n<\/h2>\n

\n The US and Iran are about to reach the halfway mark (30 days) of a 60-day memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed by Trump and Iran\u2019s president, Masoud Pezeshkian. That document purported to grant concessions to Iran in the form of sanctions relief in return for safe passage for commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. By its terms, however, the document appears to grant Iran the right to define the arrangements to be used in the Strait during this period.\n <\/p>\n

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\n Tehran is reading the document literally, whereas the US has pointed to side understandings that reach behind the text.\n <\/p>\n

\n Last week, Iranian drones targeted two ships \u2014 one from Qatar carrying liquid natural gas, and another from Saudi Arabia, carrying crude oil. Reportedly, Iran passed messages through intermediaries that the strikes were a mistake. Some even claimed they reflected an internal power struggle within Tehran between those aiming to keep the MOU intact and those prepared to risk a further escalation with the United States.\n <\/p>\n

\n Trump quickly ordered retaliatory airstrikes to enforce the American understanding of the MOU, which followed more Iranian attacks on ships \u2014 and then, this week, the MOU unraveled altogether. On Monday, Trump announced that he was reimposing a blockade on Iranian ports and said the US was prepared to become the \u201cguardian\u201d of the strait in exchange for payment in some form. The United States launched another round of airstrikes inside Iran, and Iran targeted two more commercial ships off the coast of UAE, killing an Indian crew member.\n <\/p>\n

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\"Jared<\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n<\/div>\n
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\nJared Kushner and Steve Witkoff near Lucerne, Switzerland, on June 21, 2026, during a meeting between the United States, Iran, Pakistan and Qatar to negotiate the end to the US war in Iran.<\/span>\n<\/div>\n
Urs Flueeler\/Pool\/Reuters<\/figcaption>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\nTrump\u2019s Iran envoys face scrutiny as diplomacy stalls<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

9 min read<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n

\n Until this all settles down, few ships may risk passing through the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to creep upward once again. That could increase pressure on the White House to take another go at the MOU.\n <\/p>

Read more The bugs are getting worse<\/a><\/p>\n

\n So, the US and Iran have crept back to the exact situation that existed before the MOU was signed in the first place.\n <\/p>\n

\n Balance of advantage\n<\/h2>\n

\n Iran appears to be calculating that its pressure on the strait will force the US to give up altogether, thereby ceding a new equation in the Middle East with Tehran effectively in charge of a global chokepoint. The US appears to be betting that new pressure on Iran will force it to relent and permit the uninterrupted flow of commerce that existed before the war started.\n <\/p>\n

\n In that equation, Iran has two advantages, one ancient and one modern. Its ancient advantage is the natural power of terrain \u2014 often the best resource for a defender. Iran is using its geographic location to force the US into an asymmetrical contest and neutralizing Washington\u2019s hard power advantages. Its modern advantage is drone warfare, in particular Iran\u2019s Shahed drones that are cheap to produce and can travel over 1,000 miles to strike a slow-moving oil tanker in the dark of night. Drones can be shot down and deflected but it only takes one strike \u2014 or even the threat of a strike \u2014 to stop commercial traffic.\n <\/p>\n

\n Together, these two advantages \u2014 ancient and modern \u2014 favor Iran, at least in the short term. They also present the US with limited options if it aims to truly guarantee the safe passage of commercial ships. I was the White House lead on the Middle East in 2023 and 2024 when an Iranian proxy group, the Houthis, effectively shut down the Red Sea with drones and anti-ship missiles. Despite forming an international coalition and launching a prolonged air campaign against the Houthis, it was nearly impossible for us to stop every launch let alone restore confidence to shipping companies to risk the journey.\n <\/p>\n

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\"This<\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n<\/div>\n
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\nThis handout screen grab captured from video shows Houthi fighters’ takeover of the Galaxy Leader Cargo in the Red Sea coast off Al Hudaydah in Yemen on November 20, 2023.<\/span>\n<\/div>\n
Houthi Movement via Getty Images<\/figcaption>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n Longer term, however, the advantages may shift in Washington\u2019s favor \u2014 for four reasons.\n <\/p>\n

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