{"id":5408,"date":"2026-07-10T11:35:45","date_gmt":"2026-07-10T11:35:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/?p=5408"},"modified":"2026-07-10T11:35:45","modified_gmt":"2026-07-10T11:35:45","slug":"elon-musks-plans-refer-to-an-idea-conceived-in-the-1960s-what-is-the-kardashev-scale","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/?p=5408","title":{"rendered":"Elon Musk\u2019s plans refer to an idea conceived in the 1960s. What is the Kardashev scale?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\n Elon Musk\u2019s plans for the future of SpaceX, and humanity, are rooted in an idea conceived in the 1960s when astronomers began to pick up mysterious, unknown radio sources in the cosmos.\n <\/p>

Read more Hegseth pushes for action after sailors appear to flout his beard policy<\/a><\/p>\n

\n Soviet astronomer Nikolai Kardashev was a pioneer in the search for extraterrestrial intelligence at the time, and some of the signals fascinated him. Intrigued by the idea that a transmission from potential alien civilizations could possibly be detected from Earth, he proposed a scale to classify such civilizations based on the energy they could produce \u2014 and then devote to interstellar communications. His concept is now known as the Kardashev scale.\n <\/p>\n

\n Musk has referenced the scale often, most recently in video shared on X, his social platform, ahead of SpaceX\u2019s blockbuster initial public offering in June and in a signed statement on the company\u2019s website, which summarizes a filed this year with the US Federal Communications Commission.\n <\/p>\n

\n In the request, SpaceX asks for permission to send up to 1 million new satellites into orbit, with the goal of creating data centers in space. Musk said that this new constellation of satellites would represent \u201ca first step towards becoming a Kardashev II-level civilization.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

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\nElon Musk has directly referenced the Kardashev scale in relation to his future plans for SpaceX.<\/span>\n<\/div>\n
Josh Edelson\/Getty Images<\/figcaption>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n The Kardashev scale has three levels, moving from planet to star to galaxy. A Type I civilization can use all the energy of a single planet, either produced by the planet itself \u2014 for example in the form of geothermal or wind power \u2014 or received from its host star, like solar power. A Type II civilization can use the entire energy output of a star, as well as send information across galactic distances. A Type III civilization can harness the power of a whole galaxy and send information across multiple galaxies.\n <\/p>\n

\n The Kardashev scale has its detractors, but it has been a catalyst for discussion for the past six decades, and the subject of many revisions that have added extra levels of categorization. Experts have recognized the framework as a useful tool to grade potential civilizations, albeit one that is not used in any official capacity.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cThe Kardashev scale is, in principle, almost the only scientific framework we have for objectively assessing a civilization\u2019s technological level, specifically in terms of its ability to harness and utilize energy,\u201d said Zaza Osmanov, an affiliate of the SETI Institute and associate dean of the School of Physics at the Free University of Tbilisi in Georgia. \u201cMore precisely, it allows us to estimate and compare the scale of energy resources that a civilization can control and exploit.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n Judging by that standard, any alien civilization that were to happen upon Earth now likely wouldn\u2019t be too impressed, Musk suggested in the video SpaceX shared last month. But could the company\u2019s plans for orbital data centers, which face a number of technical hurdles, and its ongoing development of Starship, the most powerful launch system ever built, really change that view? Even if they did, experts say continuing to level up in the Kardashev sense could be complicated \u2014 and consequential.\n <\/p>\n

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\nA SpaceX Starship spacecraft rolls out toward its launchpad past the Starbase Manufacturing Facility in August 2025.<\/span>\n<\/div>\n
Steve Nesius\/Reuters<\/figcaption>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n Earth on the scale\n<\/h2>\n

\n Kardashev first published the scale in a 1964 scientific paper titled \u201cTransmission of Information by Extraterrestrial Civilizations,\u201d and it soon became the subject of scrutiny.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cIn the 1960s the idea that we could communicate with alien species was all rather new, and everyone was trying to figure out how possible it was,\u201d said Jason Wright, a professor of astronomy and astrophysics at Penn State University. \u201cNikolai Kardashev was a young radio astronomer who got very excited about this idea, and he started thinking about a new type of radio source that had recently been discovered. We now understand them to be supermassive black holes in the centers of galaxies \u2014 quasars \u2014 but at the time they were still trying to figure out what they were.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n Without precisely specifying where Earth sat on his scale, Kardashev described Type I as a \u201ctechnological level close to the level presently attained on the Earth.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n American astronomer Carl Sagan proposed a revision of the scale in the 1970s to address what he believed was a major flaw: a lack of subtlety. Sagan added decimal points to make the scale continuous and suggested that humanity was about a Type 0.7 on his new version. It\u2019s important to note, however, that Sagan\u2019s version of the scale \u2014 which has become influential in its own right \u2014 is not linear but logarithmic, meaning that the gap between 0.7 and 1 is much larger than it may appear at first glance.\n <\/p>\n

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\nAmerican astronomer Carl Sagan proposed a popular revision of the Kardashev scale in the 1970s.<\/span>\n<\/div>\n
Santi Visalli Inc.\/Getty Images<\/figcaption>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n \u201cThe Kardashev scale is often criticized because it tries to project our understanding of human history and progress onto aliens,\u201d Wright said, \u201cbut Sagan\u2019s version allows us to simply set all of that aside and say species use some amount of energy, and this is how we describe how much energy they use. In that way, I think it is useful.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n The most recent approximation of where Earth sits on the adapted Kardashev scale comes from a 2023 study. Using economic, demographic, climate and ecological variables, it estimates that humanity is currently a Type 0.7276. The study also projects that by 2060, humanity would reach Type 0.7449, or about a 50% growth in energy consumption.\n <\/p>\n

\n Technically, any energy project adds to Earth\u2019s position on the scale, but the road to full Type I is a long one. \u201cUnder current energy and technology trends, reaching Type I civilization status would likely take millennia, unless major breakthroughs such as large-scale renewable expansion or nuclear fusion substantially change the trajectory,\u201d said Antong Zhang, lead author of the 2023 study and a visiting researcher at the Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences.\n <\/p>\n

\n With humanity still short of reaching Type I status, is aspiring to become a Type II even possible? According to Musk, \u201cAny self-respecting civilization should at least reach Kardashev Type II.\u201d That doesn\u2019t necessarily mean that Earth needs to fully achieve Type I, but rather \u201ca first attempt at using space-based solar energy harvesting,\u201d according to Zhang.\n <\/p>\n

\n According to Wright, Musk\u2019s plan to launch 1 million satellites is technically a step toward Type II, but harnessing the entire power of the sun would require materials totaling more mass than all the asteroids in the asteroid belt. Such a move could fundamentally alter the structure of the solar system and the habitability of Earth.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cThis is not a realistic or desirable goal for humanity to be pursuing,\u201d Wright said.\n <\/p>\n

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\nSpaceX’s next-generation Starship spacecraft during a test at the company’s launchpad in Starbase, Texas, in 2025.<\/span>\n<\/div>\n
Joe Skipper\/Reuters<\/figcaption>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n Going off-planet\n<\/h2>\n

\n Detractors of the Kardashev scale say that even reaching Type I status is not actually a realistic goal.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cNobody really wants to use all the energy of a planet, because you would completely destroy the planet in the process,\u201d said Philip Metzger, a planetary physicist and a research professor at the University of Central Florida who had an extensive career at NASA. \u201cMy view is we don\u2019t use any more of the Earth\u2019s energy. I\u2019ve been arguing for a couple of decades that we need to move industry off the planet.\u201d\n <\/p>

Read more McConnell was loaded into ambulance on a stretcher, according to eyewitness and new video<\/a><\/p>\n

\n Echoing Musk\u2019s approach, Metzger said he believes that the future of energy production and industrial manufacturing should be in space or on the moon, essentially leapfrogging Type I to aim directly at Type II.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cI wrote a paper back in 2012 when I was still with NASA, and it got attention from the Obama White House and we had a series of meetings about it,\u201d Metzger said. \u201cThe paper was arguing that we can actually start a solar system-level civilization rapidly by putting factories on the moon and bootstrapping those factories, and we argued it would take somewhere in the range of 20 to 70 years, depending on how fast you go, and it would pay back tremendous benefits to the world while costing about a third of NASA\u2019s budget.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n Metzger acknowledges that this proposal \u201csounds like science fiction\u201d and is \u201ckind of crazy,\u201d and also that there\u2019s currently no political mandate for it. However, he added, that view could change because the demand for artificial intelligence is making data centers an extremely profitable business venture but also one vehemently opposed over concerns about power and water consumption. Moving the data centers off-planet could be an answer to those concerns, he said.\n <\/p>\n

\n Living in space is also becoming a popular idea, at least among billionaires. Amazon founder Jeff Bezos has openly supported the concept of \u201cO\u2019Neill colonies,\u201d orbiting structures that would be miles wide and each hold up to 1 million people, using resources such as frozen water that can be harvested from the moon.\n <\/p>\n

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\nConcept art illustrates an O’Neill colony, or O\u2019Neill cylinder. The modules shown on the large ring structure around the endcap would be used for agriculture.<\/span>\n<\/div>\n
Rick Guidice\/NASA<\/figcaption>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n If Type II civilizations exist somewhere in our galaxy, there could be ways to spot them. One is to look for hypothetical superstructures called Dyson spheres, which were a familiar concept to Kardashev as they had been imagined by American physicist Freeman Dyson in 1960.\n <\/p>\n

\n A Dyson sphere or swarm is a shell made up of mirrors or solar panels that completely surround a star, harnessing all the energy it produces. Such a structure would inevitably give off waste heat detectable as infrared radiation, so scientists have theorized that looking for that byproduct could be a viable method for searching for extraterrestrial life.\n <\/p>\n

\n A study published in 2024 looked at 5 million stars in the Milky Way galaxy and found seven candidates that could potentially be hosting Dyson spheres.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cWhat that showed is that if Dyson spheres exist, they are extremely rare, so we now know that this is not a common phenomenon in our galaxy,\u201d Wright said. The candidates are nevertheless \u201cvery interesting\u201d and more observations are underway, he added, to find out more about them using the James Webb Space Telescope \u2014 although they might simply turn out to be false positives, or not really Dyson spheres.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cThere is a possibility that some other galaxy has been filled with Dyson spheres as a Type III. We\u2019ve done some work to try and see if that\u2019s the case,\u201d said Wright, talking about a forthcoming study that aims to ascertain \u201cwhether these things are common in the universe or not.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n The search for alien signals\n<\/h2>\n

\n When it comes to the possibility of extraterrestrial life, most scientists will exercise caution.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cThe existence of Type II or Type III civilizations is certainly plausible in principle, given the age and scale of the universe,\u201d said Tomo Goto, an associate professor of astronomy at the National Tsing Hua University in Taiwan, in an email. \u201cHowever, the lack of observational evidence for such civilizations suggests that they are either extremely rare, short-lived, or fundamentally different from what the Kardashev framework assumes.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n Ever since American astrophysicist Frank Drake launched Project Ozma, the first search for alien signals, in 1960, there has been no shortage of similar projects, and technological progress is constantly improving their reach and scope.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cIn my view, a Type II civilization is entirely plausible,\u201d Osmanov said. \u201cIn fact, detecting a civilization at our current level \u2014 or even a Type I \u2014 may be more difficult.\u201d That\u2019s because, Osmanov explained, other stars in our galaxy are on average much older than the sun, so if civilizations emerged around those stars, they would have had enough time to become far more advanced than humanity.\n <\/p>\n

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\nSoviet astronomer Nikolai Kardashev (pictured in 1980) was creator of the Kardashev scale.<\/span>\n<\/div>\n
Woodruff T. Sullivan III\/NRAO\/AUI Archives, Sullivan Collection<\/figcaption>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n But what would an alien species be doing with all the energy from an entire star? \u201cWe do not know the exact purpose, but what human history suggests is that as our ancestors progressed to higher levels of intelligence and technological development, their overall energy consumption increased,\u201d Osmanov said.\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cI would expect something similar in this case: a highly advanced civilization would probably not remain confined within a single planetary system, which implies large-scale utilization of space and a corresponding demand for energy, potentially exceeding our current energy consumption by many orders of magnitude.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

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\nO\u2019Neill Cylinder interior provides a 20-mile vista. Children born here would think it totally normal to have \u201cupside down\u201d land areas overhead. <\/span>\n<\/div>\n
Rick Guidice\/NASA<\/figcaption>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\nTwo billionaires have very different \u2014 and equally wild \u2014 visions of a future in space. Is either possible?<\/span>\n<\/p>\n

16 min read<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n

\n Kardashev, who died in 2019 after an illustrious scientific career, followed up on the scale with two papers, published in 1980 and 1985. These suggested strategies to spot signals coming from intelligent civilizations and dealt with the possible implications of such a discovery for humanity. Even though his scale focuses on energy production, he believed that \u201cthe concepts of morality and goodness are universal, like the Pythagorean theorem. Civilizations do not survive if they do not follow these concepts.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n \u201cThe Kardashev scale is a useful thought experiment for classifying civilizations in terms of their energy consumption,\u201d Goto said. \u201cHowever, it is important to keep in mind that more advanced civilizations may prioritize efficiency, computation or information processing rather than simply increasing total energy usage.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n Sign up for CNN\u2019s Wonder Theory science newsletter. Explore the universe with news on fascinating discoveries, scientific advancements and more.\n<\/p>

Read more Trump fires Election Assistance Commission leaders<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A Soviet astronomer in the 1960s proposed a scale to classify hypothetical alien civilizations. Here\u2019s why the framework is still coming up today.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5393,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5408","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-science","category-space"],"yoast_head":"\nElon Musk\u2019s plans refer to an idea conceived in the 1960s. 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