{"id":5370,"date":"2026-07-09T22:06:03","date_gmt":"2026-07-09T22:06:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/?p=5370"},"modified":"2026-07-09T22:06:03","modified_gmt":"2026-07-09T22:06:03","slug":"5-big-questions-in-the-battle-for-the-senate-after-graham-platner-drops-his-bid","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/?p=5370","title":{"rendered":"5 big questions in the battle for the Senate after Graham Platner drops his bid"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\nGraham Platner\u2019s announced exit from the Maine Senate race Wednesday concluded one of the longest-running \u2014 and most-consequential \u2014 sagas of the 2026 battle for the Senate.\n <\/p>\n

Read more Republican Sen. Grassley probing FBI Director Patel\u2019s travel and spending<\/a><\/p>\n

\n But many questions remain \u2014 both in Maine and in races around the country \u2014 that could shape how much of a chance Democrats have of flipping that chamber.\n <\/p>\n

\n Here are some of the big ones.\n <\/p>\n

\n 1. How quickly \u2013 and thoroughly \u2013 can Maine Democrats turn the page on Platner?
\n<\/h2>\n

\n Getting Platner to leave the race after the emergence of a rape allegation this week was the big first step for Maine Democrats; Monday is the deadline for being able to replace him on the ballot.\n <\/p>\n

\n But that doesn\u2019t mean it\u2019s smooth sailing from here on out.\n <\/p>\n

\n For one, Platner\u2019s announcement that he\u2019s suspending his campaign \u2014 two days after the allegation, which he denies, came out \u2014 wasn\u2019t exactly a kumbaya moment. Instead, he aired a series of grievances over the course of an 11-minute video. His base might not be as strong and passionate as it once was, but Democrats would be wise not to alienate the 72% of primary voters who backed Platner with the replacement process.\n <\/p>\n

\n The other big factor is whom Democrats replace him with.\n <\/p>\n

\n The Maine Democratic Party announced that the replacement is expected to be selected by an impromptu 600-person convention, and a number of candidates \u2014 including gubernatorial runner-up Nirav Shah, Platner\/Bernie Sanders ally Troy Jackson and others \u2014 have already thrown their hats in the ring.\n <\/p>\n

\n Whoever is selected will likely be an improvement over Platner and his declining poll numbers.\n <\/p>\n

\n But does the party try to get someone with a similar populist appeal (\u00e0 la Jackson) or does that risk allowing Republicans to tie him to Platner? (Also: Even Platner wasn\u2019t doing as well with working-class voters as you might have thought.) Do Democrats go with a more traditional \u2014 even generic \u2014 candidate who can better keep the focus on President Donald Trump rather than themselves, but might not be as exciting to Platner devotees? And how happy are people with the process that produces the nominee?\n <\/p>\n

\n All of these are major questions. GOP Sen. Susan Collins has proven resilient in the blue-leaning state, and the stakes are high for Democrats to get the next steps right. They need a net gain of four seats to win the Senate majority, and Maine \u2014 the one state Kamala Harris won where a Republican is up for reelection \u2014 is supposed to be among their best shots.\n <\/p>\n

\n 2. Do Democrats face another liability in Michigan?
\n<\/h2>\n

\n Maine wasn\u2019t the only place where some Democrats have feared their nominee might jeopardize what\u2019s likely a must-win state. That\u2019s also increasingly the case in Michigan.\n <\/p>\n

\n And all eyes will be on whether Abdul El-Sayed wins the primary on August 4.\n <\/p>\n

\n Democrats have nominated candidates like El-Sayed \u2014 a Sanders ally with pretty far-left positions \u2014 in deep-blue areas, but generally not in swing areas. That could change in this high-profile race, where El-Sayed has gained traction in the primary.\n <\/p>\n

\n The race did shift recently, with state Sen. Mallory McMorrow\u2019s decision to drop out. That means it\u2019s now one-on-one between El-Sayed and Rep. Haley Stevens, whom Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has signaled support for.\n <\/p>\n

\n But it\u2019s not clear that McMorrow\u2019s exit helps Stevens. Nor, it\u2019s worth emphasizing, is it clear that El-Sayed would necessarily perform worse in the general election.\n <\/p>\n

\n And again, the stakes are high for Democrats to get this right. Just like with Maine, it\u2019s hard to see how they win the majority without holding Michigan.\n <\/p>\n

\n 3. Are Iowa and Texas really in play?
\n<\/h2>\n

\n Democrats\u2019 most likely majority path goes like this: They flip Maine, hold Michigan and Georgia and flip North Carolina. But then they have to flip at least two<\/em> states that Trump carried by double digits in 2024.\n <\/p>\n

Read more Trump now claims Iran has already been denuclearized. So what was the point of the war?<\/a><\/p>\n

\n The most likely possibilities are these four: Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas.\n <\/p>\n

\n Alaska and Ohio appear to be pretty solidly in play, but it\u2019s not so clear that\u2019s the case with Iowa and Texas.\n <\/p>\n

\n In Texas, state Rep. James Talarico has generated lots of buzz and just raised an astounding $30 million in the second quarter. But somewhat similar to Platner, it\u2019s not totally clear he can match the hype. Democrats think he can speak to conservative-leaning voters as a man of faith and pick off voters from state Attorney General Ken Paxton, but Talarico has also previously adopted a number of positions that the GOP is eager to blast as too \u201cwoke\u201d for Texas.\n <\/p>\n

\n In Iowa, state Rep. Josh Turek looks like a great recruit in an open-seat race \u2014 a Paralympian who has held down a Trump district in the state legislature. And Democrats also have a strong nominee for governor in state Auditor Rob Sand. But Iowa has swung pretty hard to the right in the Trump era. And there\u2019s not a baggage-laden candidate like Paxton on the GOP side.\n <\/p>\n

\n What\u2019s clear for now: Both Texas and Iowa are polling competitively. Recent New York Times-Siena polls showed Talarico tied with Paxton at 47% among likely voters, and Turek running about even with GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson.\n <\/p>\n

\n 4. Are there any surprises?
\n<\/h2>\n

\n When there are wave elections \u2014 like 2026 could be for Democrats \u2014 there tend to be races that surprise us.\n <\/p>\n

\n So, which could those be?\n <\/p>\n

\n Keep an eye on Montana and Nebraska, where the leading opponents for Republicans appear to be independents rather than Democrats. (This is an increasingly common strategy for Democrats \u2014 effectively stepping aside for independents \u2014 though to this point it\u2019s mostly just made the races closer rather than caused Republicans to lose.)\n <\/p>\n

\n Also keep an eye on Kansas, where renowned methodist pastor Adam Hamilton is setting records by raising millions in a long-shot Democratic bid against GOP Sen. Roger Marshall.\n <\/p>\n

\n On the flipside, if the 2026 battlefield narrows and Republicans start doing better, don\u2019t forget that two former GOP senators, Scott Brown and John E. Sununu of New Hampshire, are battling for the right to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen in that blue-leaning state.\n <\/p>\n

\n 5. What is the impact of the two Dan Sullivans in Alaska?
\n<\/h2>\n

\n The last month has featured a big to-do in Alaska over whether a second Republican Dan Sullivan will appear on the ballot, running against GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan and Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola.\n <\/p>\n

\n The state Supreme Court ultimately cleared the way for the second Dan Sullivan last week. The incumbent senator and his allies fear this could cost them some votes if voters get confused, which could certainly happen.\n <\/p>\n

\n But Alaska has ranked-choice voting, meaning anybody who is confused could rank both Dan Sullivans and their vote would eventually go to the incumbent. At the same time, someone could pick only one candidate and pick the wrong Dan Sullivan.\n <\/p>\n

\n Also keep an eye on whether the challenger Dan Sullivan will be one of the four candidates to advance past the August 18 primary. Republicans would prefer he didn\u2019t, but Democrats could vote for him to try and push him through.\n <\/p>\n

\n It\u2019s worth following this quirk \u2014 especially given how close this race is polling and how it could decide the Senate majority.\n <\/p>\n

Read more Aviation pioneer Wally Funk, who trained as an early female astronaut, dies at 87<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Graham Platner\u2019s announced exit from the Maine Senate race Wednesday concluded one of the longest-running \u2014 and most-consequential \u2014 sagas of the 2026 battle for the Senate.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5369,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5370","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics"],"yoast_head":"\n5 big questions in the battle for the Senate after Graham Platner drops his bid - Relocation Times<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/?p=5370\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"5 big questions in the battle for the Senate after Graham Platner drops his bid - 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