{"id":474,"date":"2026-05-26T04:36:18","date_gmt":"2026-05-26T04:36:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/?p=474"},"modified":"2026-05-26T04:36:18","modified_gmt":"2026-05-26T04:36:18","slug":"analysis-these-two-new-economic-numbers-blew-a-hole-in-trumps-rosy-narrative","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/?p=474","title":{"rendered":"Analysis: These two new economic numbers blew a hole in Trump\u2019s rosy narrative"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<div>\n<p>\n            Two new pieces of economic data, one released Thursday and one released Friday, blew another hole in President Donald Trump\u2019s triumphant narrative about the effects of his tariffs.\n    <\/p><p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/?p=470\">Asteroid mission captures rarely seen perspective of Mars during close flyby<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\n            The figures released early Thursday showed Trump had wildly overstated the impact of the tariffs on the trade deficit. The figures released early Friday showed he also had wildly exaggerated economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2025.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            The Supreme Court struck down many of Trump\u2019s tariffs later on Friday. But other tariffs remain in place, and Trump quickly said he plans to replace the ones the court declared illegal with new tariffs under a different law.\n    <\/p>\n<h2>\n        The trade deficit was down 0.2% in 2025, not down \u201878%\u2019\n<\/h2>\n<p>\n            Trump has for years highlighted the trade deficit \u2013 the difference between the value of US imports and exports \u2013 as a supposed example of how the US is being \u201cripped off\u201d by other countries. (Many economists disagree with his characterization.) On Wednesday evening, he posted a celebratory message on social media.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            \u201cTHE UNITED STATES TRADE DEFICIT HAS BEEN REDUCED BY 78% BECAUSE OF THE TARIFFS BEING CHARGED TO OTHER COMPANIES AND COUNTRIES,\u201d the all-caps post began.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            The next morning, though, the Bureau of Economic Analysis  in goods and services. It was nearly identical to the 2024 deficit, down just 0.2% \u2014 nowhere close to Trump\u2019s professed \u201c78%\u201d decline. And the trade deficit in goods, the items subject to Trump\u2019s sweeping global tariffs, was up 2.1% compared to 2024.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            Trump didn\u2019t make up the \u201c78%\u201d figure out of thin air, but it was still deceptive. He was citing an out-of-date and short-term number from October 2025, when the trade deficit was 78% lower than it was in January 2025. Experts cautioned at the time that the sharp October drop would be fleeting, the result of temporary fluctuations in gold and pharmaceuticals trade, and it was.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            Trump\u2019s Wednesday post was also inaccurate in suggesting his tariffs are paid by foreign countries. Tariff payments are made by US importers, not foreign exporters, and those importers often pass on some of their costs to consumers. While foreign exporters may sometimes drop their prices to try to keep their products competitive, various\u202f analyses\u202fhave found\u202fthat the overwhelming majority of the costs of the tariffs Trump has imposed this term are being covered by a combination of US businesses and US consumers.\n    <\/p><p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/?p=454\">A ruse, a brave gamble or a fantasy? Why Trump\u2019s most puzzling Iran move yet is unlikely to work<\/a><\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-medium_large\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"Members of the media raise their hands to ask questions to US President Donald Trump during a press conference in the Brady Press Briefing Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on February 20, 2026. (Photo by Mandel NGAN \/ AFP via Getty Images)\" class=\"wp-image-473\" height=\"512\" src=\"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/3c14b66e71c452bfbd271827f846e0e6.jpg\" width=\"768\" srcset=\"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/3c14b66e71c452bfbd271827f846e0e6.jpg 768w, https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/3c14b66e71c452bfbd271827f846e0e6-300x200.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<span>Members of the media raise their hands to ask questions to US President Donald Trump during a press conference in the Brady Press Briefing Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on February 20, 2026. (Photo by Mandel NGAN \/ AFP via Getty Images)<\/span>\n<\/div>\n<figcaption>Mandel Ngan\/AFP\/Getty Images\/File<\/figcaption>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>\n        Economic growth in fourth-quarter 2025 was 1.4%, not \u20185.6%\u2019\n<\/h2>\n<p>\n            The Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday released another key set of figures \u2014 estimates on real gross domestic product (GDP) growth. These figures, too, were far from the number Trump had been touting.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            Trump told the World Economic Forum in late January that \u201cfourth-quarter growth is projected to be 5.4%, far greater than anybody other than myself and a few others had predicted.\u201d He specified in a Cabinet meeting and a Wall Street Journal op-ed later in January that he was referring to a projection for the fourth quarter of 2025 from a model run by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Then, in an early-February interview with NBC, he made it sound like 5.6% growth had already been achieved, saying, \u201cI\u2019m very proud of it: 5.6%. You know, we have a GDP of 5.6 despite a shutdown.\u201d\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            By the time of the op-ed, the Cabinet meeting and the interview, though, the Atlanta Fed\u2019s model was down to a projection of 4.2% fourth-quarter 2025 growth. Various other forecasts were even lower than that. And contrary to Trump\u2019s comment to NBC, forecasts aren\u2019t reality.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            The figures released Friday show just how far from reality his \u201c5.6%\u201d claim was. The economy actually grew at an annualized rate of just 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025, much slower than the 4.4% growth in the third quarter of 2025.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            The fall government shutdown was a significant factor in the weak figure. Still, Trump claimed growth was 5.6% despite the shutdown, which wasn\u2019t close to correct.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            And what of Trump\u2019s vague claim from a speech on the economy Thursday in Georgia, that \u201cour country was dead\u201d a year ago under former President Joe Biden, but \u201cnow we have the hottest country\u201d? The US economy grew at just 2.2% in 2025, new full-year figures showed \u2014 lower than in every year of the Biden administration and every year of the first Trump administration other than 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic hit.\n    <\/p><p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/?p=431\">The most powerful rocket ever built is now even bigger and more powerful. But will it work?<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Two new pieces of economic data, one released Thursday and one released Friday, blew another hole in President Donald Trump\u2019s triumphant narrative about the effects of his tariffs.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":471,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-474","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Analysis: These two new economic numbers blew a hole in Trump\u2019s rosy narrative - Relocation Times<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/?p=474\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Analysis: These two new economic numbers blew a hole in Trump\u2019s rosy narrative - 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