{"id":4655,"date":"2026-07-02T08:07:18","date_gmt":"2026-07-02T08:07:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/?p=4655"},"modified":"2026-07-02T08:07:18","modified_gmt":"2026-07-02T08:07:18","slug":"the-iran-mou-is-a-mess-it-still-might-work","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/?p=4655","title":{"rendered":"The Iran MOU is a mess. It still might work"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\nBrett McGurk is a CNN global affairs analyst who served in senior national security positions under Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden.<\/em>\n<\/p>

Read more Colorado governor fires two clemency board members who spoke out about Tina Peters\u2019 commutation<\/a><\/p>\n

\n The 14-point \u201cMemorandum of Understanding\u201d is among the oddest international agreements in recent memory. Short on detail, its two pages purport to grant significant up-front American concessions to Iran in exchange for opening the Strait of Hormuz, which was already open before the war President Donald Trump started in February and now hopes to end.\n <\/p>\n

\n The document has come under withering criticism from many Republicans, while being met with a \u201ctold you so\u201d flair from Democrats who point to the Obama-era nuclear deal by comparison: a 159-page agreement that placed limits on Iran\u2019s nuclear program.\n <\/p>\n

\n Meanwhile, Iran has interpreted the MOU to not even require unimpeded access to the Strait of Hormuz \u2014 the one issue the Trump administration cited as the reason for the agreement in the first place. Iran has fired drones at commercial ships violating its interpretation of the deal. The US struck targets inside Iran in response \u2014 and to uphold its interpretation of the deal.\n <\/p>\n

\n Nearly everything the US says the deal means \u2014 from releasing funds for Iran to buy American soybeans, to sanctions relief only in exchange for Iranian actions \u2014 Iran in return says the deal means something different \u2014 with no restrictions on where frozen funds are spent, and sanctions relief as a precondition even for further talks.\n <\/p>\n

\n It gets worse from there. The deal\u2019s first paragraph declares a ceasefire in Lebanon, without any details. Iran read this to require Israel to leave southern Lebanon, where it\u2019s been since 2024 under a prior ceasefire deal. Israel has refused. Then last week, Israel and Lebanon signed a separate agreement requiring Israel to withdraw only after the Lebanese army can displace Hezbollah in these areas.\n <\/p>\n

\n Iran says that new agreement violates the MOU agreement. The US says it merely incorporates what\u2019s already in the MOU.\n <\/p>\n

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\nUS Vice President JD Vance speaks during a press briefing in the Brady Briefing Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on June 18, 2026.<\/span>\n<\/div>\n
Ken Cedeno\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/figcaption>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n To account for this confusion, Vice President JD Vance, the deal\u2019s lead negotiator, has said the \u201cwords don\u2019t matter,\u201d whereas Iran cites the MOU as equivalent to a binding treaty.\n <\/p>\n

\n It\u2019s easy to lampoon such zigzags as borderline diplomatic malpractice. For the first time ever, the President of the United States has signed an agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran and yet nobody seems to agree on what the MOU says or even what it\u2019s supposed to do.\n <\/p>\n

\n This week in Doha, the US and Iranian teams were supposed to meet to provide some clarity on mutual expectations and perhaps to start the still-dormant nuclear talks, which the MOU envisions leading to a comprehensive deal. But Trump\u2019s negotiators met with Qatari mediators, not with Iranians, and there\u2019s a dispute about whether lower-level talks are happening at all.\n <\/p>\n

\n Whether those talks happen or not, I would not expect much to come from them. If the MOU seemed incoherent when it was first revealed, it\u2019s only become more so in practice.\n <\/p>\n

\n The real test: time\n<\/h2>\n

\n Yet, on perhaps the most important test of all \u2014 time and optionality \u2014 the MOU appears to be working. Henry Kissinger once said, \u201cWhen statesman want to buy time, they offer to talk.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n That appears to be the case here, for both the United States and Iran. The prolonged stalemate in the strait was harming everyone. The US military blockaded Iranian ports, suffocating Iran\u2019s economy, as Iran held the world\u2019s economy hostage with threats to commercial shipping.\n <\/p>

Read more The president\u2019s getting richer \u2014 but many midterm voters aren\u2019t<\/a><\/p>\n

\n The MOU allowed both sides to pull back, and breathe. Trump gave up the game when he said the alternative to the MOU was a global depression. Iran\u2019s leaders supporting the deal have similarly pointed to the economic benefits for Iran under the deal.\n <\/p>\n

\n As for which side this bought time will advantage, it\u2019s too early to say. If you had asked me two weeks ago and upon first reading the MOU, it appeared to be a clear Iranian victory. Washington was giving up a lot for almost nothing in return other than an opening of the Strait of Hormuz.\n <\/p>\n

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\nA cargo vessel is seen anchored off the coast of Oman after being stranded for days due to congestion at Port Sultan Qaboos, which has prevented docking, in Muscat, Oman on June 23.<\/span>\n<\/div>\n
Elke Scholiers\/Getty Images\/File<\/figcaption>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n But snapshots in time, particularly in the Middle East, rarely tell the full story \u2014 and this story is still unfolding. Some factors are even running in Washington\u2019s favor.\n <\/p>\n

\n1. Iran is not enriching uranium. <\/strong>Iran\u2019s enrichment capacity has been knocked out and has not restarted. The MOU requires Iran to maintain this status quo, making it nearly impossible to produce a bomb. For now, this most acute threat remains dormant.\n <\/p>\n

\n2. Iran\u2019s economy is reeling. <\/strong>The International Monetary Fund recently reported that Iran\u2019s economy will contract more than 6%. That\u2019s \u201cthe steepest contraction since the 1980s,\u201d and it\u2019s due in part to the recent war. In addition, inflation is projected to average nearly 70%, and the sanctions relief contemplated under the MOU means, at best, only a slow rebound.\n <\/p>\n

\n3. US economic pressure is easing. <\/strong>Since the MOU was signed, global oil prices have plummeted over 20 percent. That has eased macro-economic pressures and reduced gas prices for Americansas the summer vacation season heats up. Trump confirmed again that this was a primary aim, posting on social media last night: \u201cGas Prices will soon be back to the Record Low Prices Americans enjoyed at the pump before our very successful \u2018excursion\u2019 in Iran.\u201d\n <\/p>\n

\n4. Iran\u2019s regional \u201caxis\u201d is strained. <\/strong>Iran\u2019s triumphalist reading of the MOU initially gave a shot in the arm to Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies across the region. The recent Lebanon deal with Israel, however, tripped up Tehran\u2019s victory lap, and even in Iraq \u2014 where militias joined Iran\u2019s war against the Gulf states \u2014 a new government is cracking down and calling for all arms to be under state control.\n <\/p>\n

\n5. Less reliance on the strait. <\/strong>Iran effectively turned the tables on the US with its closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and it continues to assert sovereignty over future traffic. That\u2019s a serious problem. But its actions have caused counter-reactions, to include new pipelines and ports that bypass the strait altogether. Its recent shots at commercial ships had little impact on global prices.\n <\/p>\n

\n So, where does that leave us? Nobody can say for certain. My bet would be that this current situation sustains for some time, at least through elections this fall in both Israel and here.\n <\/p>\n

\n For now, what we do know is that the major fighting has subsided; economic pressure has reduced; and diplomatic channels are open \u2014 albeit confused and fledgling.\n <\/p>\n

\n And for all that, I say one cheer for the MOU. Because in the Middle East, things can always be considerably worse.\n <\/p>

Read more US life expectancy on track to reach record high as death rate falls to record low in 2025<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The 14-point \u201cMemorandum of Understanding\u201d is among the oddest international agreements in recent memory. Short on detail, its two pages purport to grant significant up-front American concessions to Iran in exchange for opening the Strait of Hormuz, which was already open before the war President Donald Trump started in February and now hopes to end.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4652,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4655","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Iran MOU is a mess. 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