{"id":1414,"date":"2026-06-02T07:05:01","date_gmt":"2026-06-02T07:05:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/?p=1414"},"modified":"2026-06-02T07:05:01","modified_gmt":"2026-06-02T07:05:01","slug":"restrictions-on-prediction-market-bets-by-us-troops-part-of-draft-defense-bill","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/?p=1414","title":{"rendered":"Restrictions on prediction market bets by US troops part of draft defense bill"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<div>\n<div> <div>\n<button>\n<strong>\n<span><svg>\n<\/svg>\n<\/span>\n<span>Summary<\/span>\n<\/strong>\n<span><svg><\/svg>\n<\/span>\n<span><svg><\/svg>\n<\/span>\n<\/button>\n<div>\n<ul>\n<li>A draft defense bill would bar US troops and Pentagon employees from betting on prediction markets using insider information.<\/li>\n<li>The proposal follows charges brought against a soldier for allegedly making $400,000 on bets tied to the Maduro capture.<\/li>\n<li>The provision covers even unclassified but nonpublic information like contract awards.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div>\n<span>AI-generated summary was reviewed by a CNN editor.<\/span>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>\n            Members of the US military may soon be barred from using prediction markets to bet on global events if a draft defense policy bill passes Congress and becomes law. The proposal comes after a high-profile case where a US special forces soldier is accused of using classified information to place bets tied to the capture of Nicol\u00e1s Maduro.\n    <\/p><p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/?p=1410\">Rapid changes in power have become the new normal in American politics. Here\u2019s why<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\n text released last week by the House Armed Services Committee includes a requirement that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issue regulations banning members of the armed forces and Pentagon civilian employees from trading on prediction markets where the person has relevant \u201cnonpublic information\u201d or \u201cmay reasonably obtain\u201d such info. The provision would also require Hegseth to develop a \u201crange of punishments\u201d for violating the rule.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have exploded in popularity over the past year. They\u2019re treated like commodity futures and regulated by the federal government, but many lawmakers and\u202fstate officials\u202fsay the rules haven\u2019t caught up to the realities of the massively growing industry.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            Under current federal law, prediction sites for US-based users aren\u2019t allowed to offer markets on war. But Polymarket has a popular offshore site, that Americans can easily access with a virtual private network, with dozens of war-related markets available for trading.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            The Maduro trades led in April to the first known\u202ffederal prosecution\u202ffor alleged insider trading on prediction markets, with the soldier allegedly making $400,000 on Polymarket. The soldier has pleaded not guilty, and Polymarket issued a statement saying it had \u201creferred the matter to the DOJ\u201d after the platform \u201cidentified a user trading on classified government information.\u201d\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            CNN has a partnership with Kalshi and uses its data to cover major events, but CNN editorial employees aren\u2019t allowed to use prediction markets.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            The provision barring troop betting may not survive the monthslong road ahead for the annual defense policy bill, a perennial platform for legislative politicking, but it would mark a change that could trigger stiff penalties for service members who leverage insider information.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            Eugene Fidell, a Coast Guard veteran who co-founded the National Institute of Military Justice and teaches military law at Yale Law School, told CNN that the bill \u201cclearly contemplates\u201d criminal punishment under military law for violators. Under the Uniform Code of Military Justice, disobeying orders or regulations can be prosecuted as a federal crime.\n    <\/p>\n<div>\n<div>\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-medium_large\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"The Polymarket website on a smartphone arranged in Germantown, New York, US, on Tuesday, July 22, 2025.\" class=\"wp-image-1413\" height=\"512\" src=\"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/5a59df692dae81cdb1be9d3f817263fe.jpg\" width=\"768\" srcset=\"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/5a59df692dae81cdb1be9d3f817263fe.jpg 768w, https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/5a59df692dae81cdb1be9d3f817263fe-300x200.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<span>The Polymarket website on a smartphone arranged in Germantown, New York, US, on Tuesday, July 22, 2025.<\/span>\n<\/div>\n<figcaption>Gabby Jones\/Bloomberg\/Getty Images<\/figcaption>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>\n            Fidell said that the federal government should address prediction market insider trading issues \u201cas part of an overall strategy rather than piecemeal,\u201d as opposed to singling out service members for more intensive regulation.\n    <\/p><p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/?p=1400\">Why Lebanon\u2019s unhealed wounds pose a mortal threat to Trump\u2019s Iran dealmaking<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\n            Insider trading is already illegal under federal law in situations where the trader had a pre-existing duty to keep the information private, such as military members and classified mission details. But the draft defense bill provision expands on that framework by proscribing trading on \u201cnonpublic information,\u201d a broad category that includes even unclassified info that isn\u2019t publicly available. Trading on unclassified nonpublic information, for example, could include betting on the winner of a major defense contract before its announcement.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            Franklin Rosenblatt, a professor at the Mississippi College School of Law and retired Army lawyer, believes that the military could prosecute improper betting under legal mechanisms intended to maintain good order and discipline in the ranks. But even so, \u201cit can\u2019t hurt for military regulations to regulate with greater specificity what is and is not prohibited behavior\u201d in prediction markets, Rosenblatt told CNN.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            Critics have voiced concerns about a\u202fpattern\u202fof suspiciously timed trades popping up on prediction sites around recent geopolitical events. This happened before the Maduro operation in January, and when the US and Israel launched\u202fstrikes on Iran. Polymarket previously did not reply to a request for comment from CNN about the bets tied to Iran strikes.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency that regulates prediction markets, has\u202fvowed\u202fto crack down on insider trading.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            Both the Maduro case and a new case against a Google engineer for suspicious Polymarket bets suggest the Trump administration is starting to back up its threats with real actions. But there are also bipartisan worries that the CFTC is too\u202funderstaffed\u202fto rigorously police these companies.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            The potential Pentagon rules would come after similar steps in other offices.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n            Recently, the Senate banned members from using prediction markets, and some House members also prohibited their staff from using the platforms. The Democratic governors of California and Illinois signed executive orders banning state employees from using insider information on prediction sites.\n    <\/p>\n<p>\n<em>Davis Winkie\u2019s work at CNN is supported by a partnership between <\/em><em>Outrider Foundation<\/em><em> and Journalism Funding Partners (JFP). CNN retains full editorial control of the reporting.<\/em>\n<\/p><p>Read more <a href=\"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/?p=1388\">Takeaways from Jill Biden\u2019s new memoir<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Members of the US military may soon be barred from using prediction markets to bet on global events if a draft defense policy bill passes Congress and becomes law. The proposal comes after a high-profile case where a US special forces soldier is accused of using classified information to place bets tied to the capture of Nicol\u00e1s Maduro.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1411,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1414","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Restrictions on prediction market bets by US troops part of draft defense bill - Relocation Times<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/relocationtimess.com\/?p=1414\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Restrictions on prediction market bets by US troops part of draft defense bill - Relocation Times\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Members of the US military may soon be barred from using prediction markets to bet on global events if a draft defense policy bill passes Congress and becomes law. 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